Seasonal spike in vegetable prices seems to be silently clawing back, while fruit prices have remained elevated in the last one year, even as food inflation – a major cause of worry for the policy makers last year – has so far remained benign at 0.99% in May this year, against 8.69% in May 2024.

That said, as monsoon has hit several part of the country, the much-dreaded seasonality in the vegetable prices, too, has followed suit with tomato prices doubling in the Delhi-NCR retail markets to ₹60-70 per kg just in a fortnight. Even the humble coriander (dhaniya), mostly a freebie, now comes with a remark from the vegetable seller, “dhaniya bhi mehanga ho rakha hai ji” (coriander too has become expensive), as he nonchalantly thrusts the bare minimum in the buyer’s bag.     

Lakhiram, a fruit and vegetable vendor in Greater Noida, pointed out that the prices of onion have gone up significantly in the last two weeks. “Right now only tomato and coriander prices have gone up. The prices of onion and other vegetables are reasonable,” Lakhiram said. Being asked about the apple prices, which are hovering around ₹300 a kg in retail markets of Delhi-NCR, Lakhiram said the prices of apples have remained elevated for about whole of the last one year.

According to data from the Agmarknet portal of the Ministry of Agriculture, tomato prices in Delhi’s Azadpur mandi has jumped over threefold to ₹4000 per quintal on June 16, compared with ₹1200 per quintal on June 2. The wholesale prices of tomato softened a bit on June 19 at ₹2800 a quintal on June 19. This too is more than double the prices on June 2 at the Azadpur Mandi.

It may be noted that around September and October last year, tomato prices had touched ₹100 a kg in the retail markets in Delhi. The government had to intervene and sell the commodity at subsidised rates. Last year, prolonged monsoon in major producing states such as Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Maharashtra led to supply disruptions due to which the prices hit the roof.

Fruit inflation soars

That said, the prices of fruits have not come down in tandem with the overall food price inflation. Inflation data released by the ministry of statistics pegged fruit price inflation at 12.74%. Traders at the Azadpur mandi say that apple prices have gone up exceptionally compared with the last year. According to data from the Agmarket portal, wholesale prices of apple have doubled from ₹7,143 per quintal in November last year to ₹15000 per quintal at present at the Delhi’s Azadpur market. 

Apart from the seasonal spike, the Middle East war theatre may emerge as a major threat to inflation in the country as the US too has jumped into the Iran-Israel conflict. Any escalation and subsequent disruption to oil movement via the Gulf of Hormuz may lead to high energy prices and impact inflation in the country. That may translate into a hawkish stance by the RBI and a pause on the rate cut.