Fortune India Explainer: Why home-cooked food just got cheaper, and could stay cheap

/ 3 min read
Summary

The cost of a thali is the average amount a family spends on cooking a meal at home.

In August, both vegetarian and non-vegetarian thalis became cheaper than they were a year ago.
In August, both vegetarian and non-vegetarian thalis became cheaper than they were a year ago.

At a time when food inflation has hit a low, a recent Crisil Intelligence report shows that the cost of preparing both vegetarian and non-vegetarian thalis has decreased this year—at least for now. Crisil’s monthly food plate (thalis) cost indicator confirms home food is more affordable. In this explainer, we will help you understand how your home-cooked thali became less expensive this year and the impact of GST cuts.

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Q1. What do you understand by the cost of the thali?

The cost of a thali is the average amount a family spends on cooking a meal at home. It is calculated using the prices of everyday items such as rice, wheat, pulses, vegetables, spices, oil, chicken (for non-vegetarians), thalis, and cooking gas. Prices are considered from different parts of India, namely the north, east, west, and south.

Q2. Why did the prices of thalis become cheaper in August compared to last year?

In August, both vegetarian and non-vegetarian thalis became cheaper than they were a year ago. Vegetarian thali prices reduced by 7% and non-veg thali prices reduced by 8%. The reason behind the price drop was a decline in the prices of potatoes, onions, pulses, and chicken, per the report.

Q3.  Which items helped bring the cost down the most?

The significant relief came from the drop in vegetable prices. Potato prices dropped by 31% and onion prices fell by 37% because this year's harvest was better than last year's. Pulses also become cheaper by 14%, thanks to good supply. For onions, an 18-20% rise in annual production has led to a fall in prices this year.

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On the other hand, non-vegetarian thali prices also dropped because chicken prices fell by about 10% as chicken accounts for half of the cost of non-vegetarian thalis, this price reduction is substantial.

Q4. If many items become cheaper, why didn't the thali price fall more

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This happened because some of the items became costlier. For instance, edible oil prices increased by 24% as demand for the festival season picked up. Cooking gas has also become 6% more expensive, as per the report. Overall, these two factors stopped the thali from becoming much cheaper.

Q5. Why month-on-month prices surged?

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Even though the thalis were cheap on a year-on-year basis, month-on-month prices spiked higher in August. Vegetarian thali became 4% dearer and non-vegetarian thali became dearer by 2%. The primary reason behind the price increase was the 26% rise in tomato costs in August. The price rise mainly occurs because of the interplay between demand and supply, as in this case, fewer tomatoes reached the market. On the other hand, regarding the non-vegetarian thali, chicken prices remained steady due to an ample supply, even as demand increased after the Shravan month.

Q6 Will prices rise through the year?

Though heavy rains and flooding in some parts of India could impact crops and push prices higher, the cut in GST rates is expected to offset any impact on end-consumer prices. Since around 295 items, including several essential goods, have moved from 12% rate to 5% or NIL, SBI Research believes the revision could lower consumer price index (CPI) inflation in this category by 25-30 basis points in 2026, assuming a 60% pass-through effect on food.

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