Monthly grocery baskets to power quick commerce's $90-billion leap

India’s quick commerce market is now moving to capture a much larger share of household spending. The market is projected to expand nearly seven-fold from about $13 billion in FY2026 to $90 billion by FY2031, with monthly transacting users expected to cross 100 million, according to a report by Google and Redseer Strategy Consultants.

The near-term momentum says that quick commerce sales are expected to grow 110% year-on-year during the upcoming festive season and account for around 18% of total online festive spending, as per the report. But sustaining that growth will require platforms to change what consumers buy on these apps, and where they buy from.

“Quick commerce has built its scale around a clear proposition, which is getting a known product to a consumer in minutes. The path to a $90 billion market is more complex because much of the remaining spend does not behave that way,” said Kushal Bhatnagar, partner, Redseer Strategy Consultants. 

Metros are expected to remain the biggest engine of expansion, contributing about 60% of incremental growth through FY2031. Quick commerce’s share of metro retail spending is projected to rise from around 6% currently to 20-23%, while the number of metro users is expected to increase from 28 million to nearly 50 million.

From emergency top-ups to planned shopping

The bigger opportunity lies in getting consumers to use quick commerce for planned monthly household purchases rather than only for forgotten or urgent items. The report suggests that platforms will need to push deeper into grocery by offering larger packs, better value, greater supply-chain transparency and information on product availability.

This could also change the economics of the business. Instead of relying on frequent small orders, platforms would be able to build recurring household baskets and encourage replenishment through targeted reminders and re-order nudges. No major retail category has yet crossed 15% penetration, leaving considerable room for quick commerce to expand its share of consumer spending, the report noted.

Karan Dugal, head of Industry, Quick Commerce & FoodTech, Google India, said the market has “evolved past a single playbook”, with purchasing behaviour increasingly diverging between metros and non-metros and across categories from everyday essentials to high-ticket electronics.

The second major opportunity is outside grocery. Non-grocery categories such as beauty, personal care, home essentials and electronics are projected to grow from around $3 billion in FY2026 to $21-27 billion by FY2031. Capturing this market, however, will require a wider assortment and greater consumer confidence, particularly for products where shoppers tend to compare prices, read reviews or seek assurances on authenticity and replacements.

For brands, that means quick commerce could increasingly become another discovery and conversion channel, with search, video demonstrations and creator-led content playing a bigger role before a purchase is made.

The expansion beyond metros could be even more significant, although it will require a different playbook. The report estimates an addressable pool of about 200 million online shoppers across more than 300 cities, with monthly transacting users in these markets potentially reaching 55-60 million by FY2031. More than 95% of surveyed non-users are already aware of quick commerce, suggesting that awareness is no longer the biggest barrier. Instead, smaller baskets, freshness concerns and trust are holding back regular usage.