Trump visa clampdown may trigger 20% drop in Indian students heading to US, hit $45 bn education economy

Clamp down on the universities and student visas are among the many disruptions announced by the U.S. President Donald Trump after taking over. Sachin Jain, Country Manager, ETS India & South Asia, which manages the GRE and TOEFL exams, tells Fortune India that even though the number of Indian students opting for U.S. as an academic destination may come down, the move will impact the U.S. economy as well. Edited excerpts.

Q. The U.S. President’s proclamation banning foreign students from entering the country to attend Harvard University is currently sub-judice, with a federal judge temporarily blocking it. How will it impact Indian students planning to study in the U.S.?

Such measures have certainly created heightened anxiety amongst international students globally, not just from India, intending to study in the USA given that stable regulations regarding international students has been the reason for the U.S being the most sought-after destination for international students and particularly from India.

International students bring nearly $45 billion to the U.S. economy annually, not just through tuition fees, but through spending on housing, dining, travel, clothing, and more, boosting local economies by over $6 billion thereby supporting nearly 378,000 jobs during the 2023–2024 academic year itself.

On skilled workforce, nearly 54% of international students in the U.S. are in STEM fields (Open Doors 2023), filling critical skill gaps in high-tech industries. Further, approximately 250,000 international students are currently on Optional Practical Training (OPT), directly working in sectors like IT, healthcare, engineering, and finance.

As universities, such as Harvard, are seeking legal clarification, students should remain in close contact with their university’s international office and follow official communication channels for any updates on visa processing.

Q. Restrictions have been imposed at Ivy League schools in the U.S. Funds have been restricted at the U.S. universities; visa interviews have been paused. What is the likely drop expected in the applications from India?

From an India context, where a majority of students pursue post graduate programs in the U.S, this has resulted a considerable number of students consider deferring their U.S. study plans while a similar number is considering other study abroad destinations such as UK, Germany, Ireland, etc.

At ETS, we see ourselves as stewards for international students’ journeys and are committed to supporting international students in their study abroad journeys. Our global assessments, TOEFL and GRE scores remain valid for up to two and five years, respectively, and are accepted globally, making them integral for applications to various programs worldwide.

Q. Kindly share an estimate of how many Indian students may be affected by these developments? What will be the estimated financial impact on the newly admitted students for the 2025-26 cycle?

In 2024, the U.S. issued over 86,000 F1 student visas to Indian students. This number represents a significant drop compared to the 130,000 F1 visas issued in the same period in 2023. Despite the decline, India remained the leading country of origin for foreign students in the U.S. The recent visa restrictions and policy changes will certainly impact prospects who are in the process of putting up their applications for studying in the U.S. This impact could mean a drop of at least 15-20% compared to 2024.

The financial impact will be more on the U.S institutions as they will receive lower number of international students in 2025. The U.S issued approx. 400,000 F1 visas globally in 2024 and a 15-20% drop will mean a significant hit to their financials.

Q. Given this uncertainty, what are the alternative options for Indian students? Canada, too, has faced issues such as caps on study permits—what other destinations are viable?

U.K is witnessing an increase in applications in 2025 compared to same period last year. Countries such as Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Central Europe, and Ireland are also witnessing a growing interest among students. These countries offer student-friendly policies, affordability, high-quality education, and favorable post-study work opportunities, making them viable alternatives to traditional study destinations like the U.S. and Canada.

For instance, Germany continues to attract Indian students due to its zero-tuition fee public universities, English-taught STEM master’s programs, and 18-month post-study work visas. It is projected that Indian student enrollments in Germany will exceed 50,000 by 2025.

Similarly, Ireland is seeing a steady rise in enrollments, with the number of Indian students increasing from 7,000 in the 2022–23 academic year to over 9,000 in 2023–24. Ireland offers affordable education and strong career prospects, particularly in tech, consulting, and med-tech sectors, making it a preferred choice for many. New Zealand, the Netherlands, and countries in Central Europe also offer competitive academic programs and post-study work opportunities, making them attractive destinations for Indian students.

Furthermore, the establishment of campuses by international institutions in India is another significant development that will support students aspiring to earn a global degree.

Q. What might be the consequences for doctoral candidates and research scholars who are mid-way through their programs?

In light of these uncertainties, it is crucial for doctoral students and researchers to stay informed and maintain close communication with their academic advisors, mentors, and university departments. Additionally, some students may need to explore alternative funding sources or consider deferring their research until the situation stabilizes.

Q. According to ETS India estimates, 90% of TOEFL test takers choose to study in the U.S. What do the current uncertainties in the U.S. mean for ETS India?

TOEFL’s widespread acceptance by over 13,000 institutions across 160+ countries including major destination countries such as UK, Canada, Australia, Germany, Ireland, etc., ensures that students can use their TOEFL scores to pursue a range of academic opportunities worldwide and not just U.S. As the global education landscape evolves, ETS India remains committed to helping students navigate these changes, supporting them in their academic and professional journeys, regardless of the destination they choose.

Q. Do you believe this is a turning point for India to reposition itself as not just a source market, but a host destination for international students?

Certainly, this could be indeed a pivotal moment for India to reposition itself as a global education hub. India's growing academic excellence, supported by initiatives like the National Education Policy (NEP) 2020, and emerging international campuses like those at GIFT City, and Educity, Navi Mumbai make it an attractive option for international students.