Mahakumbh 2025: Will Kumbh Mela bring in 'achhe din' for stock market?

The Mahakumbh 2025, the world’s largest human gathering, officially began in Prayagraj (U.P.) on January 13, with around 40 crore devotees—more than the combined populations of the U.S. and Russia—expected to take a holy dip in the Ganga during the 45-day grand event. The Kumbh Mela, celebrated every 12 years, is a gathering where devotees bathe at the Sangam, the sacred confluence of the Ganga, Yamuna, and the mythical Saraswati rivers. The historical belief is that the sacred waters cleanse the sins of devotees and aid in attaining moksha (liberation).

Will the Kumbh Mela affect the stock market? While there is no direct connection between the Kumbh Mela and the stock market, it does have a significant economic impact, which can influence market trends. The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) expects the Mahakumbh to generate a staggering ₹2 lakh crore in trade, estimating an average spending of ₹5,000 per person, with around 40 crore devotees participating in this mega religious event.

According to data compiled by SAMCO Securities, there have been six instances when the Kumbh Mela was held, and the Sensex delivered negative returns during all these instances, from the start to the end date of the festival. The average length of the Kumbh Mela was 52 days, and the average loss for the Sensex during these periods was -3.42%.

However, the returns six months after the Kumbh Mela ends have been positive in five out of six instances. The average gains in the six months following the festival were 8%.

“Fortunately, for bulls too, the Kumbh Mela brings a ray of hope to wash away the karmas accumulated in a bull market. There is a high chance of making mistakes when the market is rising rapidly, and participants just want to flip stocks in the lure of quick profits. Unfortunately, participants don’t realise their mistakes until there is a correction or a crash. This correction acts as a reset to start afresh, just like a dip in the holy waters,” says Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research at SAMCO Securities.

Echoing the same, Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart Ltd, says, “Over the past two decades, the Sensex has shown an intriguing trend during Kumbh Mela events. On average, the market dips by -3.4% during the Mela. However, the real story unfolds post-Mela, with a remarkable +8% average gain in the following six months.”

“Could this be the market's way of cleansing itself, much like the spiritual rejuvenation of Kumbh?” he says.

Will it be seventh-time lucky for the market?

It seems unlikely, as market experts expect volatility to persist in the stock market in the near term, with the 2025 Union Budget, Q3 earnings, RBI policy, and Trump’s policies set to define the trend in the short term.

In the last year, the BSE benchmark Sensex has delivered a positive return of 4%, while it has corrected over 5% in the past six months. On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, the 30-share index has fallen by over 2%, as recent GDP downgrades, a strong dollar against the rupee, rising bond yields, and mixed earnings amidst higher valuations have weighed heavily on market sentiment.

Sheth of SAMCO Securities opines that there could be several reasons behind this peculiar market behaviour during and after the Kumbha. “Cultural focus and economic shifts during the Kumbha Mela, where millions of Indians embark on a pilgrimage, might lead to a temporary shift in consumption patterns and reduced economic activity in certain sectors. Such events are also deeply rooted in renewal and detachment, which might unconsciously affect investor behaviour, leading to a more risk-averse sentiment.”

“Jupiter’s 12-year cycle and its alignment with the Mela remind us that markets, like human behaviour, are often influenced by factors beyond rational economics. Investors might draw lessons from this correlation, considering the historical underperformance as a signal to adopt a more cautious strategy during the Kumbha Mela,” he adds.

Mahakumbh expected to generate trade worth ₹2 lakh crore

According to CAIT projections, the Mahakumbh is expected to generate trade worth around ₹2 lakh crore, boosting both nominal and real GDP by over 1%. The Mela is expected to have a positive impact on the travel and tourism industry, including transportation services such as local taxis, interstate travel, logistics services, and the food and beverage industry in terms of sales of packaged foods, water, biscuits, juices, and meals.

Segment-wise, accommodation and tourism are projected to generate trade worth ₹40,000 crore, food and beverages ₹20,000 crore, religious items and offerings ₹20,000 crore, transportation and logistics ₹10,000 crore, and tourism services ₹10,000 crore.

The Kumbh Mela is deeply rooted in Hindu mythology and has a fascinating connection with astronomy, particularly with Planet Jupiter. It takes approximately 12 years for Jupiter to complete one revolution around the Sun. The Kumbh Mela occurs when Jupiter enters specific zodiac signs and aligns with the Sun and Moon in particular configurations, marking a period of heightened spiritual significance. Hindus believe this alignment imbues the rivers where the Kumbh is celebrated with cosmic energy, making it an auspicious time for purification and renewal.

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