COP29 Deal Disappointment

THE PARTICIPANTS at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP29), the annual summit of 197 countries and the European Union, agreed to provide $300 billion a year by 2035 to help the poorer countries cope with climate change. COP29 also cleared the long-pending rules for a global carbon credit market, making country-to-country trading and a carbon crediting mechanism fully operational.

As the world’s only multilateral decision-making climate change forum, the COP’s mandate is to make strategies to strengthen climate action. Securing commitments from developed countries to fund programmes for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and building resilient communities was the key agenda this year too. Also in focus was the shape and size of the next round of national climate plans, known as National Development Contributions (NDCs) that outline each signatory nation’s strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, transition from fossil fuels and limit global warming to 1.5 degree celsius above pre-industrial levels. NDCs have to be updated every five years. The next round, NDCs 3.0, is due in early 2025. But funding support is essential for any plan to materialise.

For India, whose interests align with that of least developed countries and small island developing states, COP29 wasn’t a great success. The sanctioned climate finance is a fraction of the $1.3 trillion a year that these countries were seeking from the richer nations. India has been consistently demanding significant financial resources for not only facing extreme weather events but also a quick transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources to meet its ever increasing energy demand. “Advanced countries’ pledge to provide at least $300 billion by 2035 is a poor reflection of their commitment to assist developing countries in combating climate change challenges. Given that advanced countries met their earlier commitment of $100 billion annually only in 2022, COP29 decisions made it amply clear that the $5-7 trillion needed by developing countries to implement their climate action plans will never be realised,” says Biswajit Dhar, distinguished professor, Centre for Social Development, New Delhi. While COP29 has agreed to work towards scaling up finance to developing countries to $1.3 trillion per year by 2035, there is uncertainty over even the $300 billion promised in COP29 with Donald Trump, who has called climate change a ‘hoax’ in the past, returning as the U.S. President next year.

For India, the situation is complex as it has no choice but to take mitigation and adaptation efforts seriously. First, even though it is not a legacy polluter, it is among the top three greenhouse gas emitters. It has to reduce its fossil fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions with or without external support. It is also severely affected by extreme weather fluctuations and associated natural calamities that kill and displace thousands of citizens. A Reserve Bank of India report, published in May 2023, quotes studies to suggest that India, along Brazil and Mexico, faces high risk of reduction in economic growth if global warming raises temperature by two degrees. It says climate change could cost 2.8% of GDP and depress living standards of nearly half the population by 2050. The report also says that India could account for 34 million of the projected 80 million job losses from heat stress-associated productivity decline by 2030 and up to 4.5% of India’s GDP could be at risk by 2030 owing to labour hours lost due to extreme heat and humidity. These estimates underscore the importance of faster implementation of climate mitigation policies irrespective of whether India gets external support or not. A sustainable future is a necessity for India.

Hence, a plan which is ambitious and depends on external financial support should only supplement a base plan directing India towards sustainability. The first step was the National Action Plan on Climate Change in 2008. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been vocal about climate action and caught the world’s attention by announcing five ambitious goals for India at the COP26 in Glasgow — net-zero emissions by 2070, meeting 50% energy needs from renewable sources by 2030, reducing carbon emissions by one billion tonnes by 2030, increasing non-fossil energy capacity to 500 GW by 2030 and reducing the carbon intensity of the economy by 45% by 2030 (over 2005 levels). As per the latest Climate Change Performance Index ranking, India and the U.K. are the only two G20 countries among the top 10 performers this year. Considering that the G20 members account for over 75% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions and 14 G20 countries received a low or very low ranking in the index, India’s efforts need to be appreciated.