Are IT stocks heading for a turbulent FY26 as Trump tariffs shake investor confidence?

Donald Trump’s tariffs have sent shockwaves through markets around the world, and their repercussions on Indian IT services stocks were no different. On Thursday, the Nifty IT index closed 4.2% lower, with stocks of industry bellwethers like TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCL Tech, and midcaps like Persistent and Coforge all taking a hit. Tata Consultancy Services, the country’s largest IT services company, is all set to begin the earnings season for the fourth quarter and full fiscal on the 10th of April.

While most companies have been speaking about discretionary spending picking up, the recent results of Accenture have provided cautious optimism on FY26 organic growth. Nomura, in its note dated 3rd April, said that it expects a marginal revenue decline for the top three companies in constant currency terms. For TCS, it expects a revenue decline of 0.5% q-o-q in cc on the back of falling contribution from the BSNL project. For Infosys and HCL Tech, it expects revenues to decline by 1% q-o-q and 0.5%, respectively, in cc due to the seasonality of the quarter. Noting rising macro uncertainty as a major headwind, the note stated: “FY25F was a growth improvement year for most of the Indian IT companies due to the partial return of discretionary demand over the past few quarters, particularly in the financial services vertical. Rising macro uncertainty due to tariff concerns in the US is likely to slow decision-making at clients and hence impact the pace of revenue growth improvement in FY26F for Indian IT companies in general, in our view.”

While TCS does not provide an annual revenue guidance range number, markets will be eagerly watching out for the management commentary on the demand outlook and cues from Infosys and HCL Tech for their guidance numbers. “We expect Infosys to guide for 2-5% y-o-y revenue growth in cc with a stable 20-22% EBIT margin band. For HCLT, we expect it to guide for 3-5% y-o-y growth in revenues in cc terms with an unchanged 18-19% EBIT margin band. We expect Wipro to guide for -1.5% to +0.5% q-o-q revenue growth for 1Q FY26F,” Nomura noted. 

Recently, at Nasscom’s annual meet, the industry body shared insights from its CEO Survey, where it outlined the sentiment as being on an “upward trajectory despite global headwinds, reflecting cautious optimism.” According to its survey, approximately 77% of tech CEOs anticipated higher business growth, while 85% of the surveyed respondents expected client tech spending to be similar or higher in FY2026 compared to FY2025. In a statement, Rajesh Nambiar, President of Nasscom, said, “While the CEO outlook for FY2026 remains measured yet positive, with increased tech and AI spending, sustaining the growth momentum requires a strategic vision. However, upskilling in niche and core tech areas will continue to remain of paramount importance for the industry.”