As global fault lines deepen and technology becomes the new arsenal, India must wield both levers—geopolitical agility and tech ambition—to shape the future, not just survive it.

It’s not trade. It’s not territory. It’s tech. The next global power play won’t be decided by tanks or treaties—it’ll be decided by chips, code, and cyber. And India, for once, isn’t just watching. It’s being watched.

The world’s two biggest levers of influence—geopolitics and technology—are converging. The U.S.-China rivalry is no longer just about tariffs or Taiwan. It’s about who controls the future of AI, semiconductors, quantum, and space. Every move—every export ban, satellite launch, or data regulation—is a geopolitical signal. 

India is no longer on the sidelines. It’s in the arena. But the question is: can it lead?

The new cold war is digital

In 2024, the U.S. banned Chinese connected car tech, citing national security. China retaliated by open-sourcing its AI models to challenge Western dominance. The battleground? Not borders—but algorithms.

India’s strategic calculus is shifting. It’s part of the Quad, building maritime partnerships, and pushing for supply chain sovereignty. But it’s also hedging—balancing ties with the West while keeping channels open with Russia and the Global South.

This isn’t fence-sitting. It’s smart power. But smart power needs sharp tools.

 Tech is no longer just an industry; it’s infrastructure

India’s Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI)—from Aadhaar to UPI—isn’t just a domestic success. It’s a soft power export. Countries from Indonesia to Kenya are adopting India Stack. This isn’t philanthropy. It’s influence.

Semiconductors? India’s $10 billion incentive scheme has attracted players like Micron, AMD, and Tower Semiconductor. But fabs take years. What India can do now is dominate chip design, IP, and talent. With over 2 million STEM graduates annually, it has the numbers. What it needs is urgency.

Cybersecurity? According to the India Cyber Threat Report 2025 by DSCI and Seqrite, over 369 million malware detections were recorded across 8.4 million endpoints. AI-powered malware, ransomware, and supply chain attacks are surging. Yet India’s response remains fragmented. Agencies operate in silos. Real-time data remains locked. The KPMG 2025 report on national security flags this as a critical vulnerability—highlighting that reliable, real-time data often remains siloed across institutions, undermining timely threat assessment and response.

Fixing this isn’t just about tech. It’s about trust.

Geopolitics is no longer just diplomacy; it’s data 

India’s data localisation laws, its stance on cross-border data flows, and its push for indigenous cloud infrastructure are all geopolitical moves. Control the data, control the narrative.

The Indo-Pacific is heating up. Taiwan Strait tensions, South China Sea flashpoints, and Arctic ambitions are redrawing maps. India’s naval expansion and satellite diplomacy are responses—but they need to be matched by tech muscle.

Space? Isro’s commercial launches are rising. In 2024, India launched 24 foreign satellites, including payloads for Singapore, the U.K., and the U.S. But the real race is for low-earth orbit dominance. Satellite internet, surveillance, and space-based AI are the next frontier. India must move from launchpad to leadership.

Quantum computing? India’s National Quantum Mission, launched in 2023 with ₹6,000 crore funding, aims to build 50–100 qubit systems by 2026. That’s ambition. But ambition needs acceleration.

India’s choice

India stands at a crossroads. It can be a tech colony—consuming Western platforms and Chinese hardware. Or it can be a tech power—building indigenous systems, shaping global norms, and exporting digital governance.

It can be a geopolitical pawn—reacting to shifts. Or it can be a player—setting the rules. The twin levers—geopolitics and tech—are in its hands. But levers don’t move themselves. They need grip. They need intent.

India has the moment. What it needs is momentum.

(The author is a C-suite+ and startup advisor, and researches and works at the intersection of human-AI collaboration. Views are personal.)