The unpredictably predictable Donald Trump has just confirmed the worst fears of Indian IT services sector and the Indian diaspora at large. The US administration said on Friday that companies will have to pay $100,000 for every new H-1B visa.

Though there was confusion over whether the fee was annual or one-time, the White House press secretary had clarified that it applies only to new visas, not renewals, and existing visas.

Yet the revised fee (currently in the $2,000-5,000 range) is prohibitive and will manifest into an Aa Ab Laut Chale or Swades moment for Indian techies living in the US. To begin with, the narrative of having “on-site” presence had spawned the rush of Indian IT folks to the US.

That logic is unravelling fast. The Covid crisis proved that even the so called “on-site” guy could manage work “remotely” over the cloud. Honestly, there was never a water-tight business case to have “on-site” presence, it was more of a perk or reward for employees than a crying necessity for clients.

Indian IT leaders had already seen the writing on the wall.

TCS chief executive office K Krithivasan had mentioned that in the event of a shrinking H-1B visa availability, the company could “move work to India.” Infosys, for instance, has nearly a quarter of its on-site workforce in the US on H-1B visas.

Add to this the political context. With Trump likely to stay in power until 2029, clients will not risk rubbing the dispensation the wrong way. Cold economics is the other reason. Nearly two-thirds of Indian IT firms revenues come from providing application development, maintenance, and testing services.

A recent report from HSBC Global Investment Research states that it in no uncertain terms: the Indian IT has already eaten a fifth of the global IT pie. In other words, when you are already at 20% of revenues and 35-40% of volumes, there’s only so much further one can go. “It’s hard to grow at the same pace,” mentions the report. In short, the growth curve had already started flattening before Trump’s tantrums. The advent of AI is not exactly helping either.

H-1B visa was a ticket that let Indian techies, live and work in the US. Normally, the validity of the visa is for three years and can be renewed once for another block of three years. Now whether the fee will apply only to new visas or could later be extended to renewals is also unclear, given Trump’s policy flip-flops. Already grappling with a structural deflation, the visa fees that costs nearly as much as 1 BHK in suburban Mumbai or Gurgaon will only force the hand of Indian IT services companies.

More than the cost, the inhuman deprivation is also complete.

When the likes of JP Morgan and Microsoft tell their H-1B employees to report back to the US or not to step out of its borders till more clarity emerges, it’s not just a HR policy memo—it’s a psychological marker.

From midnight of September 21, 2025, anyone with H1-B visa currently living outside of the US, can be denied entry. The new rule just goes to show that the techies in the US are on a “bond” not on a visa. Given Trump’s comment that the “bottom quartile” workers, who only earn $66,000 a year and are “five times more likely to go on government assistance programs”, inadvertently paints Indians, who make up 71% of H-1B visa holders, as a replaceable commodity rather than talented professionals.

Indian IT services industry will, either on their accord or nudged by their clients, have to move more work offshore. Cloud, AI and the global delivery model means location matters less than ever. The “onsite” premium and its associated perks is gone.

What America loses, India gains. As former CEO of NitiAayog Amitabh Kant tweeted that by slamming the door on global talent, America has pushed next wave of talent and innovation to Indian shores.

While that could well be advantage India, for a generation of Indians who chased the American Dream, the moment has come to “rediscover” the joys of being “desi” sans the Rs 88 lakh-a-year tag.