Aamir Khan’s OTT gamble: Can Sitaare Zameen Par rewrite the 8-week theatrical rulebook for Bollywood?

Aamir Khan’s recent film Sitaare Zameen Par (SZP) has made headlines not just for its theme, but also for the unconventional nature of its release. Khan, who plays the lead role and has also co-produced the film, confirmed during a media appearance that he would not be releasing on any OTT platform in the near future. Fortune India explores why filmmakers prefer to pre-sign their OTT deals and whether Khan’s decision to not release on OTT will benefit or backfire.

With the exclusive theatrical release decision, the SZP filmmakers positioned the film as a deliberate effort to revive the big-screen experience. Speaking at a variety of media occasions, the filmmakers have pointed out that, rooted in inclusivity and shared experience, the move signals a push for broader reform in a theatre industry still in crisis.

Industry analysts and filmmakers have called the move bold. Beyond reviving interest in theatregoing, the strategy also served as an effective hype and marketing tool. Much like exclusive fan-edition launches of smart devices, the theatre-only release helped sustain strong footfall, with Sacnilk reporting 40.26% Hindi occupancy as of Saturday.

“It’s a very brave idea. The eight-week window is a normal trend in Bollywood (to release the film after eight weeks on the digital platform), and Aamir Khan has decided against that. He has not even sold the digital rights yet. I think it’s a very brave step. He had offers, but he still did not get tempted by those offers and did not sign the deal,” says trade analyst Taran Adarsh.

The decision to release the film exclusively in theatres has sparked a wider debate within the film industry. Some see it as a timely effort to revive theatre viewing; others question whether such a model can hold up in a digital-first era.

Why do filmmakers prefer OTT release? Why is the 8-week window the norm?

The shift towards OTT releases has been largely driven by changes in audience behaviour post-Covid, when digital consumption became the norm and cinema footfalls dropped significantly. What was once a premium, shared experience has lost its edge, with many questioning the value of spending ₹500–1000 in theatres when the same content becomes available on OTT within weeks, often at little to no extra cost.

The dip in cinema footfalls is stark. Comscore data shows admissions peaked in 2018 at 1.56 billion, with a 45% decline since then, as noted in the EY-FICCI 2025 report. While people are going out more than before, cinema hasn’t fully recovered. Audiences today favour participatory, immersive activities over passive viewing, leaving the film industry at a crossroads on how best to bring them back to the big screen.

With theatres no longer offering a unique value proposition and most stories easily accessible online, the pressure has shifted to filmmakers to justify the theatre-going experience.

This shift gave rise to the industry practice of a 6-to-8-week theatrical-to-OTT window. While the 8-week window is the norm for Bollywood, South Indian films have historically followed a much shorter 28-day window.

“In a world where we’ve accepted piracy as a fait accompli, and we have adopted the transient nature of relevance as a way of life, I think the 8-week window is equally acceptable—except for those rare outliers that experience extreme failure or success at the box office,” says Satyamev Jayate-fame filmmaker Monisha Advani. Advani has co-founded Emmay Entertainment with Madhu Bhojwani and Nikkhil Advani.

Additionally, filmmakers realise that by the time a movie loses its steam in theatres, declining occupancy makes it difficult to recoup costs—making digital the only viable path forward.

“An eight-week window is a must, because by that time, a lot of things actually get exhausted, of the theatrical business,” Adarsh says.

For filmmakers, OTT, satellite, and digital rights are crucial revenue streams, especially since physical distribution remains expensive and theatres take a significant share of box office collections.

“I think we need to remember we make content for audiences, and wherever we get a chance to be discovered by them, we should grab it,” adds Advani, who has also produced a series of popular web shows including Rocket Boys and Dry Day.

Where is the problem?

The problem lies in the pre-signing of OTT deals. The moment prospective moviegoers learn that a film’s OTT release is already secured, their motivation to watch it in theatres diminishes. What prompts producers to finalise such deals early is the pre-release hype, which often helps them secure a good price and ensures a closer reach to profitability.

So, who is set to benefit the most?

Almost everyone who spoke to Fortune India agreed that this decision is expected to have a positive impact on multiplex owners and service providers. Multiplex exhibitors, who have been significantly affected by the audience shift from theatres to OTT platforms, have welcomed SZP’s preference for big-screen releases over digital premieres. The Multiplex Association of India (MAI), formed under the aegis of FICCI, even recently felicitated Aamir Khan for the same reason.

While PVR Inox declined to comment, industry insiders acknowledged that although Sitaare Zameen Par has not drawn large single-screen audiences, it has generated decent revenue for theatres—particularly at a time when several Hindi films have underperformed at the box office in recent months.

“For the theatrical people, it’s a great thing because the audience now knows that it’s not coming on the platform. And the only way to watch the film is, of course, going to the theatres. In that respect, it is a heartening stand for the film industry—especially in today’s times, where people don’t know whether the theatrical business would help them recover the plot or not yet,” Adarsh adds.

The bigger question, however, is whether the decision truly benefited the makers of Sitaare Zameen Par. While its box office performance may not match the scale of Aamir Khan’s past blockbusters like Dangal or PK, the film has still performed respectably. By its third week, Sitaare Zameen Par had crossed ₹160 crore in global collections. Its India net collection stood at ₹154.35 crore, with a worldwide total of ₹238.35 crore, comprising ₹184.35 crore from India gross and ₹54 crore from overseas markets, according to data from Sacnilk.

In comparison, SkyForce earned nearly ₹111 crore in 21 days, and Kesari 2 collected only ₹83.35 crore in India net collections by Day 21 of their releases—much lower than Aamir Khan’s recent release. Even Aamir Khan’s previous film Laal Singh Chaddha managed just around ₹60 crore in India net by its 21st day.

Viewed in this context, Sitaare Zameen Par’s theatrical performance appears to have outpaced several recent big-ticket Hindi releases, suggesting that the gamble to stay off OTT, at least initially, may have paid off.

“SZP is already doing very well at urban centres. It’s not doing so well in smaller centres. And that’s okay because the urban centres are compensating. The film should do approximately ₹160 to ₹175 crore in the domestic market, and that’s a very good total for a film like this one,” Adarsh adds.

Another point to consider is that skipping an OTT release does not necessarily guarantee a longer theatrical run. Instead, it increases the risk of recovering costs. As Adarsh notes, a film’s theatrical run largely depends on its business potential, not just its release strategy. What remains to be seen now is whether Sitaare Zameen Par can sustain its performance at the box office, especially with fresh competition from three new releases this week—Rajkummar Rao’s Maalik, Shanaya Kapoor’s debut film Aankhon ki Gustaakhiyaan, and Superman featuring David Corenswet.

Will this success convince others to join the bandwagon?

While Sitaare Zameen Par’s exclusive theatrical release has worked in its favour, not everyone sees this as a broader trend in the making. Most industry observers agree that simply withholding films from OTT platforms will not bring about a theatrical revival unless the cinema experience itself is reimagined and made more compelling.

“It’s a one-off thing where not every producer is going to be brave and courageous,” Adarsh says.

Advani argues that such a move also requires a strong financial position and considerable professional equity—conditions not every producer can count on in today’s uncertain environment. As a result, many view this as an exception rather than a sign of things to come.

“In this specific case, the gamble has paid off and the film fared exceptionally well to recover for and reward its stakeholders. I think one needs to be in a unique position of financial health and professional equity to take such chances in these ambivalent times. Undoubtedly, it raises courage in some others to follow suit,” Advani adds.

There is also recognition that digital platforms cannot be blamed for the shift in consumer behaviour. Personal device consumption continues to grow rapidly and remains one of the most effective ways to reach large audiences. Digital remains indispensable for discovery and long-term monetisation.

“Can this become the norm? It would be wishful thinking, as I don’t believe it is fair to hold digital platforms responsible for a clear shift in consumer preferences. Personal device consumption keeps growing exponentially and cannot be ignored. It is the single most efficient way to reach and be discovered by large volumes of audiences/consumers,” Advani says.

Adarsh revealed that the OTT release for Sitaare Zameen Par might only be delayed, not ruled out. Producers could be waiting for the theatrical run to conclude before finalising a digital deal.

“He is waiting for the theatrical experience to get over. And then I think he would take a call,” Adarsh says.

Meanwhile, other big-ticket films like War 2 have already locked in an eight-week window in advance, showing that approaches continue to vary. There is no fixed rulebook that mandates a uniform strategy across the board.

“There’s a big film lined up called War 2, but they have already signed an eight-week window. So, [ultimately] it is up to the producers. There is no rulebook which says that every producer has to follow the same trend,” he adds.

Ultimately, it is the content that drives longevity. For now, to truly revive audience interest in the theatrical experience, moviemakers will have to make the content worth skipping the couch-viewing for.