Bernstein predicts 'long and exhausting crypto bull market', sets Bitcoin target at $200,000

Global research and brokerage firm Bernstein forecast a "long and exhausting crypto bull market" ahead, driven by Bitcoin's (BTC) consistent ascent to new record highs. Researchers at Bernstein, led by Gautam Chhugani, Managing Director, Global Digital Assets, are predicting the digital currency to hit as high as $200,000 by the year-end or early 2026, citing the ongoing surge in institutional adoption.

BTC touched a new all-time high of $123,000 earlier Monday, marking an 85% surge in the past year. Its market capitalisation has also soared to $2.43 trillion, surpassing equity and non-equity assets like Amazon, Silver, Google, and Meta.

Analysts at Bernstein emphasise that, unlike past BTC rallies largely led by retail investors, the current one is predominantly being driven by institutional investors. This institutional demand, coupled with record ETF inflows, underpins the brokerage major's heightened optimism in blockchain and digital assets, as reported by The Block.

The rally is expected to continue, and traders are not shying away from placing bigger bets. As per Polymarket, 59% polled in favour that BTC could reach $125,000 by the July-end, and 29% say they think it'll touch $130,000.

On Monday, BTC briefly hit a new all-time high near $123,091 before easing to approximately $118,292, as markets reacted to US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on imports from Russia. Despite this brief dip, the total crypto market cap grew by 16% in just a week, reaching a fresh record high of $3.88 trillion. Institutional interest remains strong, with U.S. crypto funds continuing to accumulate even as European inflows slow.

"On-chain indicators and futures positioning suggest the broader uptrend remains intact. Traders are now closely watching whether Bitcoin can reclaim $123,000 and push to new highs or consolidate further below the $115,000 level," says Avinash Shekhar, Co-Founder & CEO, Pi42.

Despite BTC's retreat from its historic high, ETFs recorded substantial inflows of around $300 million for Bitcoin and $260 million for Ethereum. "Technically, $116,000 now stands as a key support level for Bitcoin; a breach below this could open the door to further downside toward $112,000. For Ethereum, critical support lies near $2,800," believes Piyush Walke, Derivatives Research Analyst, Delta Exchange.

The bullish structure remains intact despite the short-term pullback to $118,500. According to CryptoQuant, total daily Bitcoin exchange inflows have fallen to 18,000 BTC, the lowest level since April 2015, indicating reduced selling pressure. "Bitcoin's support has (also) moved up to $17,100, showing strong resilience, while resistance stands at the previous high of $123,000," says Edul Patel, Co-founder and CEO of Mudrex.

Analysts from CoinSwitch Markets Desk suggest that "BTC price movements appear to be forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern where if BTC bounces back from the neckline support level of $113K," it could see a target of $148K. Analysts emphasise the current rally reflects more durable, less speculative capital entering the market.