India can achieve ₹75,000 crore defence exports by 2030 through PPP model: Anil K Agarwal at Army War College

Anil K Agarwal, Chairman of International Affairs and Past President of ASSOCHAM, and President of Cosmos Group, has called for raising India's defence export target to ₹75,000 crore by 2030, from the government's existing target of ₹50,000 crore by FY30. He said closer collaboration between the private sector and the defence establishment, along with investments in emerging technologies and large-scale manufacturing, could help India emerge as one of the world's top 10 defence exporters.

Addressing more than 100 senior officers of the Army, Navy and Air Force at the Higher Command Course at the Army War College in Mhow, Agarwal spoke on the theme of "Transforming India into a Defence Export Hub". The officers, predominantly of the rank of Colonel and equivalent, were joined by Lt Gen Ajay Chandpuria, Commandant of the Army War College, and senior faculty members.

Agarwal highlighted the need for a stronger partnership between the armed forces, the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), defence public sector undertakings (PSUs), private manufacturers, MSMEs and start-ups. Such collaboration, he said, should focus on joint research and development, product innovation, testing and large-scale production to meet domestic requirements as well as expand India's presence in global defence markets.

Defence exports rise 56 times in 12 years

India's defence exports have increased 56 times, from ₹686 crore in FY14 to a record ₹38,424 crore in FY26, with Indian defence equipment now being exported to more than 80 countries. Defence PSUs accounted for 55% of exports, while private companies contributed the remaining 45%. India's defence production also touched an all-time high of ₹1.78 lakh crore.

Agarwal pointed out that defence exports have tripled over the past four years, growing at an annual rate of around 32%. At this pace, India could surpass the government's ₹50,000-crore export target for FY30 well ahead of schedule. The target requires annual growth of only around 7%, he said.

Proposing a more ambitious goal of ₹75,000 crore (approximately $8 billion) by 2030, Agarwal said achieving it would require annual growth of about 18%—significantly lower than the growth rate recorded in recent years.

"India is a large country with huge requirements. When the armed forces, DRDO, defence PSUs, private industry, MSMEs and start-ups research and build together, we produce new and better products, at a scale that justifies the research. Scale brings down cost, and that opens the door to exports. A target of ₹75,000 crore by 2030 is well within our reach," he said.

Drones, AI and next-generation defence technologies

Highlighting lessons from the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and West Asia, Agarwal said modern warfare increasingly relies on drones, missiles, satellites, air-defence systems, electronic warfare and data-driven technologies. India must develop the ability to manufacture such equipment rapidly and at scale to remain competitive, he said.

The interaction also saw suggestions for setting up incubation centres for defence start-ups and MSMEs, with direct links to the armed forces to facilitate product testing and feedback. Other proposals included focused research in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, cybersecurity, drones and counter-drone systems.

Agarwal also called for developing comprehensive export packages that include training, spare parts, financing and lifetime support. He suggested that the armed forces play a more active role in promoting exports through joint planning of future requirements, faster user trials, sharing operational feedback and leveraging India's Defence Attachés stationed overseas.

He added that India's trade agreements with Australia, New Zealand, the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and the United Kingdom, along with the proposed agreement with the European Union, could facilitate technology transfers, co-production arrangements, global certification and access to new markets for Indian defence manufacturers.

"The world now trusts Indian equipment because our own forces have proven it. With the forces and industry working as one team, India can rank among the world's top ten defence exporters," Agarwal said.

Lt Gen Ajay Chandpuria, Maj Gen H S Gill, Brig R S Rana, and Brig Ravi Shankar appreciated Agarwal's address and the proposals discussed during the interaction.

ASSOCHAM welcomed the Ministry of Defence's growing openness to working with industry, saying stronger collaboration would help build manufacturing scale, meet India's future defence requirements and strengthen the country's position in the global defence market.