India's WPI turns negative in June as broad-based price decline strengthens RBI’s rate cut case

India’s wholesale price inflation (WPI) declined to –0.13 % in June 2025, compared to 0.39 % in May and 3.43 % in the same month last year. The decline was led by deflation in food articles, fuel, and select manufactured goods, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry on Monday.

“The annual rate of inflation based on the All-India Wholesale Price Index (WPI) number is –0.13 % (provisional) for the month of June 2025 (over June 2024). The negative rate of inflation in June 2025 is primarily due to decreases in prices of food articles, mineral oils, manufacture of basic metals, crude petroleum & natural gas, etc.,” the commerce ministry said in a statement.

In June 2025, the index for primary articles rose 0.81 % from May, driven by higher prices of minerals (1.49 %), non‐food articles (1.26 %), and food articles (0.82 %). However, prices of crude petroleum and natural gas declined slightly by 0.44 % over the same period.

Fuel and power prices saw a sharper decline, with the index falling 2.52 % month‑on‑month. Electricity prices dropped 9.10 %, while mineral oils and coal slipped by 0.54 % and 0.07 %, respectively. The index for manufactured products dipped marginally by 0.07 %. Among the 22-manufacturing sub‑groups, 11 recorded price increases, six saw declines, and five remained unchanged. Price gains were seen in sectors such as machinery, transport equipment, pharmaceuticals, and electronics, while basic metals, food products, and rubber and plastics saw falls.

Primary articles saw a 0.81 % increase in June from May, with higher prices of minerals, non‑food articles, and food articles. However, crude petroleum and natural gas prices fell 0.44 %.

The index for fuel and power declined 2.52 % month‑on‑month to 143.0, while electricity prices dropped 9.10 %. Mineral oils and coal also saw marginal declines.

The latest data show a clear deceleration in wholesale price inflation across key segments in June 2025. The broad‑based decline across sectors underlines a weakening price environment, supporting the case for the RBI’s recent rate cut.

The Reserve Bank of India, which primarily tracks retail inflation for its policy decisions, cut the benchmark repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.50 % last month amid signs of easing inflation.