Luxury Special: Exemplar Luxury Group's Philippe Paul Schaus on the future of luxury retail

A CENTURY AGO, “luxury retail” would have struck most people as a contradiction in terms. Saddle makers, trunk makers, haute couturiers, and jewellers dealt directly with royals, aristocrats and the occasional cardinal, often from a single address, sometimes without so much as a shop window. Retail meant volume. Luxury meant the opposite. Today, most major houses run several hundred stores across five continents, some spanning thousands of square metres and doubling as restaurants, galleries or even hotels. Understanding where this business goes next starts with remembering how it got here, through five forces that turned a cottage industry into a half-a-trillion-dollar one. The first was diversification beyond each house’s original craft: accessories, fragrance, and cosmetics at the entry level; home interior, watches, and jewellery at the top, creating multi-category lifestyle propositions and shopping experiences, all while keeping the tension between heritage and reinvention that keeps a brand alive. The second was the professionalisation of retail itself. Real estate, store design, merchandising, IT systems, and staff training became as central to a maison as its ateliers, backed by huge spending on flagships built to be experienced, not merely shopped. E-commerce, when it arrived, was treated less as a sales channel than as a courtesy owed to a customer moving seamlessly between screen and store. The third was brands shifting from being inspired by culture to producing it, through art foundations, artist partnerships, multi-media fashion shows, and other design initiatives that turned marketing budgets into cultural capital. The fourth, harder than it sounds, was doing all this without losing the plot: stretching into new products, geographies, and price points while staying itself recognisably, as defined by the “brand DNA”. The fifth followed from the other four: attracting a customer base that grew from a handful of aristocratic families to hundreds of millions of shoppers worldwide, beginning with Japan’s travel boom of the 1970s and 80s, joined later by European, American, and Middle Eastern and other nationalities and then, decisively, by Chinese consumers — stretching from first-time, often aspirational buyers, to the high-net-worth few still given the private-salon treatment once reserved for actual royalty. That is how we got here. The pressing question is where we go next, because an industry that compounded at extraordinary rates for two decades has partially hit a wall. After the post-pandemic sugar rush, growth has all but stalled. Analysts have been trimming their 2026 forecasts all year, and the consensus has settled around 2–2.5% growth for the global personal luxury goods market — down from the 4–5% expected as recently as last autumn. Even that number assumes China stabilises rather than keeps sliding. Still close to a third of global luxury spending, China is no longer the guaranteed engine it was; younger and middle-income shoppers there worry about jobs and families, and are concerned about the vanishing of their retirement reserves invested over 30 years in a now collapsed real estate market, and are hence, more prosaically, buying gold instead of handbags. The American customer is splitting along income lines, Russia is mired in its aggression war, the Middle East is unsettled by conflict, and only Japan, propped up by a weak yen and loyal domestic shoppers, still looks reliably strong in spite of its unforgiving demographics. My belief is that the five forces which have driven growth in the past will continue to work, but at a lesser rate since we are missing the market locomotives of the last 20 years. The situation has been temporarily exacerbated by the boom-and-bust period between 2019 and 2024. The industry moved from under-capacity and hefty price increases to over-capacity and, for some brands and products, price rejection. Brands that mistook price for desirability are discovering the difference, and 2025–26 has brought what the industry euphemistically calls “structural cost measures”, or cuts, to entire categories. Several storied fashion names have quietly closed more stores than they opened. None of this means luxury retail is shrinking so much as growing up. The desire for experience, self-indulgence and discovery is and remains fundamental, and the luxury industry has a bright future if it continues to be rigorous about its founding principles. Talking about locomotives, potential new large markets like India or Africa are still a long way from providing volumes of a relevant magnitude. Brands will have to embrace local cultures and luxury traditions as they did in China and Japan to succeed in these markets. But they will also require a massive improvement of real estate infrastructure and local media quality alongside a significant diminishment of current administrative and fiscal hurdles. Lastly, one important lesson from the last two years is that brand integrity — on design, pricing, materials, where and how things are made, environmental and social impact — has stopped being a communications exercise and become the product itself. For all consumers, especially the younger ones, the industry most needs to recruit. It is the ultimate “make or break” of any luxury brand. So yes, luxury retail has a future. The appetite for beautiful, well-made, meaningfully told objects is not going away, any more than human vanity is. There will always be outlying brands that will perform better than the industry as they anticipate and create new desires. But an industry that grew for 20 years by expanding geographies and product categories will now have to generally adapt to a lesser pace of growth while playing on its five forces and being more adamant at rejecting any compromise on the integrity of its brands, products, communication, and prices. (Views are personal.)

Luxury Special: Exemplar Luxury Group's Philippe Paul Schaus on the future of luxury retail

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