Blockbusters beware: How Bollywood’s biggest bets are backfiring while underdogs are stealing the show

India’s cinema industry is bracing for the so-called "January curse," a month notorious for underwhelming box office collections, as seen with recent releases like Ram Charan’s Game Changer and Sonu Sood’s Fateh. Today, Ajay Devgn’s Azaad is releasing alongside Kangana Ranaut’s Emergency, while the remaining weekends of January will see two more action-packed films—Akshay Kumar’s Skyforce, set for the Independence Day weekend, and Shahid Kapoor’s Devaa. However, as 2025 unfolds, filmmakers must urgently rethink their approach, drawing insights from the hits and misses of 2024 to understand evolving audience preferences.

Hits and Misses

First things first—what were the big hits and flops? Pushpa 2, Kalki 2898 AD, Stree 2, Devara Part 1, and Bhool Bhulaiyaa 3 emerged as the top five successes, with two crossing the ₹1,000-crore mark. However, all were high-budget productions, with Kalki 2898 AD made on a ₹600-crore budget, followed by Pushpa 2 and Devara at ₹500 crore and ₹300 crore, respectively. While these budget figures are estimates from public reports, box office data sourced from Sacnilk shows that Stree 2 and Pushpa 2 stood out—Stree 2 earned six times its budget, while Pushpa 2 amassed nearly four times its production cost.

Yet, strong box office numbers do not always translate into equally strong profits. This is because budgets often exclude marketing costs, and box office collections include theatre cuts, meaning the entire revenue doesn’t go directly into producers' pockets.

Interestingly, more big-budget films (over ₹100 crore) failed at the box office compared to medium-budget films (₹30 crore–₹100 crore).

As many as seven films with budgets exceeding ₹100 crore failed to recover even their production costs. These included Suriya's Kanguva, Akshay Kumar’s Bade Miyan Chhote Miyan, Ajay Devgn’s Maidan, and Atlee and Varun Dhawan’s Baby John. Despite their hefty budgets, these films failed to break even, leading to significant losses.

“It's not about big or small anymore. It's only about a good film that is well-told and correctly budgeted. What is abundantly clear is that audiences aren’t getting conned by shoddy tentpole vehicles. The alternative menu, made with honesty and sincerity, is flying,” said Tanuj Garg, Managing Partner, Ellipsis Entertainment, to Fortune India.

The OTT Shift

Another key trend in 2024 was the surge in direct-to-OTT releases. As many as 38 films premiered on streaming platforms, many featuring major stars like Diljit Dosanjh in Amar Singh Chamkila, Sara Ali Khan in Ae Watan Mere Watan, and Kriti Sanon in Do Patti, among others.

Take Imtiaz Ali’s Amar Singh Chamkila, which, despite launching on Netflix, trended for six consecutive weeks on the platform’s India list for films and remained in Netflix’s non-English global films list for two weeks.

“In 2024...stories worked, not stars. We had a wide variety of genres like Article 370, Laapataa Ladies, and Stree 2—none of which had major stars. Plus, these were headlined by women, made on the right budgets, and worked brilliantly,” said Jyoti Deshpande, CEO, JioStudios, to Fortune India.

Laapataa Ladies grossed five times its budget at the box office and was even selected as India’s official entry for the Academy Awards.

Audience Preferences

While action dominated at least 25% of films in 2024, comedy, particularly horror-comedy, delivered stronger box office performances, as seen with Munjya.

The audience’s fickle taste for franchise films was evident—while Pushpa 2 and Stree 2 became blockbusters, Indian 2 and Bad Newwz failed to make an impact.

“What didn’t work were remakes of South Indian films that were already available on OTT in their original and dubbed versions,” Deshpande noted.

What Lies Ahead

As 2025 unfolds, the industry is set to be dominated by sequels and adaptations, with confirmed releases like Housefull 5, Baaghi 4, De De Pyaar De 2, and War 2. Tentative releases include Kick 2, Krrish 4, Aashiqui 3, Golmaal 5, and Dhadak 2.

Sharing JioStudios' strategy for 2025, Deshpande revealed that the production house will remain committed to theatrical releases and will focus more on regional-language films, particularly Marathi.

“In the South Indian industry, until theatrical revenues become more transparent, we will stay away,” she added.

As audiences embrace pan-India films dubbed in multiple languages, the movie business demands a perfect blend of budget, script, and hype—carefully curated to keep the money flowing.