Govt revises India's gold import data downward

The Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS) has sharply revised the value of India’s gold imports for April to November 2024 period. From the earlier quick estimate of $49.08 billion worth of gold imports during this period, it has come to $37.39 billion, a drop of $11.69 billion (-23.8%).

The downward revision has been the sharpest in November 2024, as gold imports during the month now stand at $ 9.84 billion, 33.8% lower than the earlier estimate of $14.86 billion for the month.

An analysis done by New Delhi based thinktank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) shows that India’s gold imports from UAE reduced from the earlier estimate of $11.63 billion to $7.98 billion, a drop of $3.65 billion (-31.38%) during the April-October period while that from Switzerland was revised downwards by $1 billion, from $9.45 billion to $8.45 billion (-10.58%) during the same period. The gold import from South Africa was revised downward from $3.45 billion to $2.38 billion (-31.01%), from Australia by $0.48 billion, from $1.53 billion to $1.05 billion (-31.37%) and from Hong Kong from $1 billion to $0.67 billion (-33%) during the same period.

There was a downward revision in the import data of silver and electronics goods also during the April-November 2024 period. While India’s silver imports for April to November 2024 were revised down from $3.28 billion to $2.33 billion, marking a $0.95 billion drop (-28.9%), India’s electronics imports for April to November 2024 were revised from $63.9 billion to $61.2 billion, a reduction of $2.7 billion (-4.2%).

“These revisions highlight significant changes in India's import data, particularly in the gold and silver sectors, impacting overall trade figures for April to November 2024,” said Ajay Srivastava, co-founder, GTRI.

Stating that data adjustments have significant implications for trade policy, revenue calculations, and economic planning, Srivastava said, “The revisions highlight discrepancies in earlier data reporting and underscore the need for accurate trade documentation, especially in high-value commodities like gold.”

In fact, India’s merchandise trade deficit had risen to an all-time high of $37.8 billion in November 2024, compared to the average of $23.5 billion during April-October 2024, because of a surge in gold imports in November. A 33% cut in the gold import numbers of that month will, thus, have an impact on India’s merchandise trade deficit numbers as well.

“Government must share the details why such large scale revisions were needed. Ensuring more accurate and timely data collection, minimising reporting errors, and improving verification mechanisms will be essential to avoid such large-scale corrections in the future and to provide a clearer picture of India's trade performance,” Srivastava said.