India’s economy poised for steady growth at 6.4% in FY25: Eco Survey

Despite global uncertainties, the Indian economy is poised to display steady economic growth during the current year, the Economic Survey 2024-25 tabled by Union Minister of Finance and Corporate Affairs Nirmala Sitharaman in Parliament today says. India's real GDP growth is estimated to be 6.4 per cent in FY25 and could be in the range of 6.3 and 6.8 per cent in the next year (FY26), the Survey says.

While the country’s GDP growth remains close to the decadal average, the global economy grew by 3.3 per cent in 2023 and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global growth to average around 3.2 per cent over the next five years, the Survey notes.

The Survey states that the growth process has been ably supported by stability on fronts such as inflation, fiscal health, and external sector balance. On inflation, the Survey states that retail headline inflation has softened from 5.4 per cent in FY24 to 4.9 per cent in April – December 2024. It also notes that for the first six months of FY25, agriculture growth remained steady, with Q2 recording a growth rate of 3.5 per cent. The industrial sector grew by 6 per cent in the first half, and is estimated to grow by 6.2 per cent in FY25, it said. The performance of India’s services sector was another point highlighted in the Survey. “A notable growth in Q1 and Q2 resulted in 7.1 per cent growth in the first half of FY25. Across sub-categories, all the sub-sectors have performed well. India’s services export growth surged to 12.8 per cent during April–November FY25, up from 5.7 per cent in FY24,” it said.

The Survey also states that as a result of stable capital flows, India’s foreign exchange reserves increased from $ 616.7 billion at the end of January 2024 to $ 704.9 billion in September 2024 before moderating to $ 634.6 billion (as of 3 January 2025). India’s forex reserves are sufficient to cover 90 per cent of external debt and provide an import cover of more than ten months, thereby safeguarding against external vulnerabilities, it said.

“The Government’s commitment to make India a developed nation is reflected in the economic survey. This year's survey has provided a data-driven comprehensive overview of the country’s economic health and current economic situation and the roadmap for the future. The insights published in the economic survey will surely help the policymakers in framing inclusive policies for our country,” Mithileshwar Thakur, Secretary General of the Apparel Export Promotion Council said.