Indo-Pak conflict: Sensex slips below 80K, Nifty near 24,000; don’t panic, say analysts

The Indian equity market was reeling under selling pressure on Friday, with benchmark indices the BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty50 falling over 1.5% each in early trade as tensions between Indian and Pakistan escalated. However, the domestic bourses soon gained some lost ground, showing strong resilience supported by firm global cues and strong macro indicators.

At the time of reporting, the BSE Sensex was down 688 points, or 0.86%, at 79,646, and the NSE Nifty dropped 234 points, or 0.96%, to 24,041 levels. The broader market also witnessed a surge in selling activities, with mid-cap and small-cap indices falling by up to 1.5% each.

Early today, the 30-share Sensex dropped as much as 1,366 points, or 1.7%, to hit a low of 78,968. Similarly, the Nifty50 lost 338 points, or 1.4%, to 23,936 in opening trade.

On the BSE Sensex pack, 26 out of 30 index heavyweights were flashing in the red, barring Titan, Larsen and Toubro, Tata Motors, and Asian Paints. The top five losers were Power Grid Corporation of India, UltraTech Cement, ICICI Bank, NTPC, and Bajaj FinServ, falling up to 2-4%.  

In a major respite to the domestic market, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have been on a buying spree in the Indian market during the last 16 trading sessions. On Thursday, FIIs bought domestic equities worth Rs 2,008 crore, while domestic institutional investors sold their holdings worth Rs 596 crore. For calendar year 2025 so far, FIIs have been net sellers of Indian equities worth Rs 1.19 lakh crore, while DIIs have net purchased shares worth Rs 2.18 lakh crore.

Don’t panic, remain invested: Analysts

Amid heightened uncertainty in the market as geopolitical tensions escalated with Pakistan, caution prevailed in the market, with investors partially booking some profits. However, market analysts suggested that investors not panic and exit from the market now, and recommended that they remain invested with the “buy the dip” strategy.

“Investors should not panic and exit from the market now. Remain invested, monitor the developments and wait for the dust to settle,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments.

“Under normal circumstances, on a day like this, the market would have suffered deep cuts. But this is unlikely due to two reasons,” he said.

Vijayakumar said the conflict, so far, has demonstrated India’s clear superiority in conventional warfare, and therefore, further escalation of the conflict will inflict huge damage to Pakistan. Adding to it, the market is inherently resilient supported by global and domestic macros. A weak dollar and potentially weakening US and Chinese economies are good for the Indian market, he added. “The domestic macros construct is further rendered stronger by the high GDP growth expected this year and the declining interest rate environment.”

Shrikant Chouhan, Head – Equity Research, Kotak Securities, said that heightened border tensions and weak global cues dragged down markets and the rupee. “Investors are advised to stay cautious, avoid aggressive positions, and focus on fundamentally strong stocks with limited near-term exposure to geopolitical risks. Defensive sectors and quality large-caps may offer better stability in the current environment.”

Technically, if the Nifty breaks below 24,200, it may see an increase in weakness throughout the day, potentially leading to a retest of levels 23,900 or 23,850, which were tested nine days ago. For a bullish market, it is essential to maintain levels above 23,800 on a closing basis; otherwise, the likelihood of a drop to 23,500 increases significantly, he added.

Echoing the same, Sameet Chavan, Head-Research (Technical and Derivatives), Angel One, said the Nifty continues to consolidate on the daily chart within a broad range for over three weeks. The recent price action has been erratic, forming a pattern of alternating up and down days. “If the weakness persists, Nifty may retest the 24,150 level, followed by the 200DSMA around 24,000. On the upside, resistance is seen at 24,400, and a breakout above 24,600 is essential to reignite broad-based momentum.”

In the near term, the trend remains range-bound with a cautious undertone. Given the prevailing geopolitical uncertainty, it is prudent to avoid aggressive overnight positions heading into the weekend.