Inflation data, Q4 results, Trump’s tariff, FII trading key factors to drive stock market this week

Indian stock market has seen high volatility in the past few weeks amid slew of global and domestic factors, and the trend is likely to continue in the upcoming holiday-shortened week. The equity market will be open for just three days this week amid market holidays for Dr. Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti and Good Friday on April 14 and April 18, respectively.

The week is poised to be a crucial one for global markets. With inflation, industrial activity, and employment data lined up across the world’s largest economies, including U.S. and China, investors can expect increased volatility and sharper focus on central bank cues. “These numbers will help shape expectations for future rate paths and economic resilience as we progress deeper into 2025,” Bajaj Broking said in a report.

The further developments on the U.S.-China tariff front and any new announcements on “reciprocal” duty by the U.S. administration would be key trigger for the market. On the domestic front, the Reserve Bank of India’s rate cut and “accommodative” policy stance will continue to provide support to the market. The market will see stock specific reaction as many big players, including Infosys , HDFC Bank , Wipro and ICICI Bank , are set to release their quarterly results during the week. Adding to it, foreign funds flow trends, rise or fall in U.S. Dollar Index as well as crude oil prices will also impact market sentiment.

Last week, equity benchmarks BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty ended the week on a muted note, settling with modest losses amid heightened volatility triggered by Trump’s tariff announcements. Driven by strong rally on April 11 after the U.S. decision to defer tariffs, domestic benchmark indices BSE Sensex closed the week with a loss of 207 points, or 0.27%, at 75,157 level, and the Nifty50 closed 76 points, 0.33%, lower at 22,829 mark.

Here are key factors that will drive domestic market this week:

Corporate results

IT bellwether Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) kicked-off March quarter earnings season last week, while several big players, including HDFC Bank, Infosys, Wipro, and ICICI Bank, are set to unveil their financial results this week. As per the quarterly results calendar available on the BSE and NSE, a total of 34 companies will release their earnings reports for March quarter this week, starting with known players such as Hathway Bhawani Cabletel & Datacom, Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA), and ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company on April 15.

On April 16, Angel One, Wipro , Waaree Renewable Technologies, Swaraj Engines, GTPL Hathway will unveil their Q4 results, followed by Infosys, HDFC Asset Management Company, Tata Elxsi on April 17. Mastek and Network 18 Media & Investments are set to release their earnings report, while leading private lenders HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and YES Bank will announce their results over the weekend on April 19.

Among these big players, Infosys, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank are also expected to declare dividends next week.

FIIs trend

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) resumed sell-off in April, withdrawing a net amount of ₹32,121 crore in the first half of the month, so far. Overall, foreign investors pulled out ₹1,48,695 crore so far in the calendar year 2025, including ₹3,973 crore in March, ₹34,574 crore in February, and ₹78,027 crore in January 2025.

The sell-off was triggered by the turbulence in global stock markets following U.S. President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and its impact on economic growth. Adding to the woes, persistent concerns over global inflation, tighter monetary policies by major central banks, and trade tensions amid U.S. tariff uncertainties prompted FPIs to reduce exposure to emerging markets like India.

Macro data

This week a host of significant economic data from major global economies will be released, which are expected to guide market sentiment and influence monetary policy expectations, Bajaj Broking Research said in a report.

In India, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for March will be released on April 15. This indicator will provide insights into wholesale inflation trends, which are crucial for understanding cost pressures at the production level and could have implications for the Reserve Bank of India’s future rate decisions.

From the United States, key data will begin with the Industrial Production (YoY) numbers for March, scheduled for release on April 16. This data will offer a snapshot of the strength of the manufacturing sector and overall industrial activity. Following that, on April 17, the initial jobless claims report will be closely watched by investors and policymakers alike, the report noted.

China, too, will be in the spotlight on April 16 with a trio of critical economic indicators. The country will report its Q1 GDP growth (quarter-on-quarter), Industrial Production (YoY) for March, and the Unemployment Rate for March. Together, these figures will offer a comprehensive view of China’s post-pandemic economic recovery, domestic demand trends, and labor market conditions. Strong data from China could boost investor confidence globally, particularly in commodity and industrial sectors that are closely tied to Chinese demand.

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