'New investors must…’: Vijay Kedia makes big prediction on Indian equity markets; 'market undergoing big shift,' he says

Amidst ongoing consolidation in the Indian equity market, ace investor Vijay Kedia said that there is fundamental shift in the Indian stock market's behaviour, particularly since the early 2000s. Now, bull markets are lasting longer, while bear markets are becoming shorter.

“We have observed a fundamental shift in the Indian stock market's behaviour, particularly since the early 2000s. Before 2003, bull markets were relatively short-lived, while bear markets tended to drag on. However, the period from 2003 to 2007-08 marked a dramatic change, with an unprecedented five-year bull market,” Kedia said in a post on X (formerly Twitter). 

“The bull market in 2007 was followed by a severe 2008 global financial crisis, which triggered a sharp market decline. Yet, the market rebounded remarkably quickly, reaching its bottom and recovering within just nine months,” he added.

Recalling the market crash during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 that caused a swift and steep bear market, Kedia said that the recovery was equally rapid during the biggest political bear market of the century. “This pattern suggests a trend of longer bull markets and shorter, sharper bear markets,” he explained.

The statement came amid ongoing correction in the domestic stock market for the last five months since beginning of October 2024. The continued sell-off in Indian equities has wiped out nearly ₹1 lakh lakh crore from investor wealth in the last five months, with Sensex and Nifty plummeting up to 16% from their life-time highs touched in September 2024.

Kedia lost ₹632 cr in market meltdown

The recent market correction has significantly impacted the portfolio of Vijay Kedia, who is known for investing in small and mid-cap stocks. The ace investor has lost 34.8% of total value, or ₹632 crore, in the market rout since October 1, 2024. As of March 5, 2025, Vijay Kedia’s portfolio stood at ₹1,183 crore.

Kedia, one of the most followed investors in the Indian market, publicly holds 15 stocks through himself and his self-owned company, Kedia Securities Pvt Ltd. His portfolio stocks—Atul Auto and Tejas Networks—have seen a sharp correction in the recent market crash.

Recently in an exclusive conversion with Fortune India, Kedia had said that the Indian markets were in “consolidation” mode and a further correction could not be ruled out. On market volatility, he said that this was a normal trend and pains may be temporary.

“The domestic market has been rising for the past three to four years and now it is in a reaction mode. The market will keep on consolidating somewhere here and there. I don't think this budget will take market to new height,” he had said.

Kedia had recommended new investors to start with mutual funds rather than directly buying individual stocks. “My humble suggestion to all new investors is that when you enter the market, don't invest directly in stocks, because you don't yet understand the intricacies of the stock market. You don't understand why stocks fall, nor do you understand why they rise. It's a completely different game altogether. It requires a lot of experience. So, my suggestion is that new investors should start by investing through mutual funds.”

(DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed by investment experts on fortuneindia.com are either their own or of their organisations, but not necessarily that of fortuneindia.com and its editorial team. Readers are advised to consult certified experts before taking investment decisions.)