RBI policy, CPI data, and TCS earnings: Key market triggers to watch out this week

The Indian stock market witnessed sharp volatility last week, with the benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ending lower, ending two-week gaining streak. Given the persistent global trade tensions triggered by Donald Trump's higher-than-anticipated tariffs, market volatility is likely to remain elevated this week amid inflation concerns and recession fears. Investors will trade cautiously ahead of highly-anticipated RBI policy, followed by macroeconomic data and quarterly earnings, along with global retaliatory tariff announcements against Trump's tariffs.

The RBI monetary policy committee (MPC) will unveil policy outcome on April 9, where the market is expecting another 25 bps rate cut. This will be followed by key macroeconomic indicators—IIP and CPI data—on April 11. Adding to it, March quarter earnings season will kick off with IT bellwether TCS set to announce its results on April 10. The market will be closed on Thursday for Shri Mahavir Jayanti.

“This week, Indian markets are expected to be volatile on the back concerns over the impact of the US reciprocal tariffs and potential announcements of further sector specific tariffs during the week,” Motilal Oswal said in a note.

Here’s how market traded last week

Both domestic equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty indices stared the financial year 2025-26 on rough note, falling 2.5% each during the week ending April 4, 2025. The Nifty settled the week at 22,904.40, while the Sensex closed near the week’s low at 75,364.69.

In line with the benchmark indices, the broader market also seen sharp correction, with Nifty Midcap 150 and Nifty Small cap 250 indices declining by 2.3% and 2.1%, respectively, compared to the previous week. The meltdown eroded investors’ wealth over ₹10 lakh as total market capitalisation of the BSE listed companies dropped to ₹403.34 lakh crore.

On the sectoral front, the IT space was the worst hit, falling over 9% amid fears that trade war would weaken discretionary spending demand in the U.S. The pharma index also lost 2.7% amid sharp selling on Friday, triggered by report that Donald Trump is considering imposing tariffs on pharmaceutical goods. On April 2, the Trump administration imposed 26% tariffs on all imports from India, but exempted pharmaceuticals from higher reciprocal duty.

Key levels to watch this week

Technically, the Nifty has broken below all major price and moving average supports, indicating potential for further downside, says Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking. The immediate support lies at 22,600, while a decisive breach could open the door towards 22,100. On the upside, any recovery is likely to face stiff resistance in the 23,100–23,400 zone.

Bajaj Broking Research in its outlook has begged the key support area for Nifty around 22,700-22,800 levels, holding above the same will be crucial for pullback to materialise towards last week high 23,565 in coming week. “Failure to hold above the support area of 22,700 can lead to extended decline towards 22,300 levels,” it said.

For Bank Nifty, the index is expected to gradually head higher towards 52,050 (last week high) and then towards 53,000 levels in the coming weeks being the measuring implication of the recent range breakout, says Bajaj Broking in a note. “While key support is placed at 50,300-50,700 levels being the confluence of last two weeks almost identical low, 20 days EMA and recent breakout area placed around 50,500 levels.”

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