RBI monetary policy meet: Will Sanjay Malhotra signal a rate cut amid US tariff pressure? Here's what experts expect

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reduced the repo rate by as much as 100 basis points through three successive rate cuts from this February. Given the uncertain global economic outlook and volatile trade environment resulting from the recent tariff adjustments, most experts expect the central bank to remain vigilant and maintain the benchmark lending rate at 5.5%. However, there are differing views from real estate and other financial experts as well.

Debopam Chaudhuri, chief economist at the Piramal Group, expects the repo rate to remain steady at 5.5%, with a potential shift in stance to accommodative. He also says that there will be two rate cuts later in FY26.

Vinayak Magotra, founding team, Centricity WealthTech, says, "We expect RBI to maintain a pause on the rate cut cycle in the upcoming August policy meeting. With a 50-bps reduction in repo rate and a 100-bps reduction in the CRR (to be rolled out from September 2025), the liquidity conditions are easing. The full impact of these measures is still playing out."

Moreover, with the credit growth beginning to moderate, the market will closely watch the RBI MPC's strategy. Pramod Kathuria, founder & CEO, Easiloan, says, "We expect the committee to maintain a cautious pause on rate action while reaffirming liquidity management and price control. For home loan borrowers, repo rate stability is crucial because even slight rate movements have a significant impact on EMIs and affordability. Forward guidance on future rate cuts or liquidity measures will influence borrowing sentiment in housing finance and real estate."

However, Ramani Sastri, chairman and managing director, Sterling Developers, says, "We are hopeful of a further rate cut as it would be highly encouraging for homebuyers and developers alike, potentially boosting affordability and investments in the real estate sector. With construction costs on the rise, affecting capital flows, lower interest rates would also ease financing pressures for developers."

With retail inflation at record lows, corporate investment lagging, and industrial output losing steam, a substantial rate cut is not just warranted, it’s essential, says Akhil Saraf, founder and CEO, Reloy. "Stimulus through lower interest rates can reignite demand, ease borrowing costs, and revive private sector confidence at a time when the economy needs a decisive push."

Deepak Aggarwal, co-founder, co-CEO and CFO of Moneyboxx Finance Limited, says, "With inflation levels at a multi-year low and India’s economy showing steady growth, the upcoming MPC meeting is a good opportunity for RBI to consider reducing the repo rate by 25 basis points. This would build on the earlier rate cuts made in recent meetings. A further cut, along with continued support for liquidity, would help increase demand and improve the flow of credit to MSMEs and NBFCs, particularly as the festive season approaches. At the same time, global developments like higher tariffs in the U.S. and pressure on the rupee highlight the need for flexible and balanced policy decisions."