Samvat 2083: What if you bought 1 gram of gold and 100 grams of silver every Dhanteras since 2005?
ADVERTISEMENT
What if you had put a little money into gold every Dhanteras, buying just one gram each year? Or picked up 100 grams of silver every festive season? Over 21 years, those small annual purchases could have added up to a surprisingly large investment.
The returns would have been substantial. An investor who purchased one gram of gold every Dhanteras from 2005 to 2025 would have accumulated 21 grams of the yellow metal at a total cost of ₹76,246. At current prices, that holding would be worth approximately ₹3,02,400, translating into a gain of ₹2,26,154, or nearly four times the cumulative investment, according to a report by Kotak Neo.
Similarly, buying 100 grams of silver every Dhanteras over the same period would have resulted in an accumulation of 2.1 kg of the white metal. The total investment of ₹1,05,329 would now be worth ₹3,94,800, generating an absolute gain of ₹2,89,471.
The gold investment would have grown 3.97 times, while silver would have delivered 3.75 times the money invested. Based on the actual dates of the annual purchases, gold would have compounded at an annualised rate of 15.4%, compared with 13.8% for silver, the report said.
The earliest purchases delivered the highest multiples. One gram of gold bought for ₹700 on Dhanteras in 2005 would be worth ₹14,400 today, a 20.6-fold increase. Similarly, 100 grams of silver purchased that year for ₹1,160 would be worth ₹18,800, or 16.2 times the original investment.
Even purchases made during the gold rally of 2011–2013 have multiplied 4.6–5.4 times. Meanwhile, gold and silver bought on Dhanteras in 2025 have gained around 11% in a year, according to the exercise.
Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research at Kotak Neo, said the exercise highlights the importance of consistency and patience in long-term investing.
“The lesson is not that investors should buy precious metals simply because prices have risen. It is that consistency, patience and appropriate asset allocation can matter more than trying to time every market move,” he said.
Gold prices down 22% from Jan peak
Domestic gold prices are trading at around ₹1.47 lakh per 10 grams, down more than 22% from their January peak of approximately ₹1.80 lakh (around $5,595 per ounce). The correction follows an extraordinary rally over the past few years.
Domestic gold prices have risen from approximately ₹47,600 per 10 grams in November 2021 to around ₹1,42,750 in late October 2026, translating into an absolute return of nearly 200% and a compounded annual growth rate of 24.53%.
Devenya Gaglani, Senior Research Analyst - Commodities at Axis Direct, expects gold to remain under pressure in the near term. The metal is trading below the critical support zone of $3,960, while markets are pricing in an anticipated Federal Reserve rate hike in December 2026. A further correction could take prices towards support levels of $3,700 and $3,600, he said.
However, Gaglani believes current levels offer an attractive entry point for long-term investors, with the remaining downside risk estimated at around 5%–8%. A possible geopolitical peace agreement and easing inflationary pressures could eventually allow the US Federal Reserve to pivot towards rate cuts, providing a positive trigger for gold.
Axis Direct recommends staggered and systematic accumulation at lower valuations, with a long-term price target of ₹1,65,000–₹1,80,000 by the next Dhanteras.
Speculative froth has been purged, says Monarch
Monarch Networth Capital also views the correction as a technical reset rather than a reversal of gold's longer-term bullish trend.
According to Dhruv Joglekar, Assistant Fund Manager at Monarch PMS, the roughly 30% correction in 2026 followed the unwinding of leveraged positions, a hawkish transition to Kevin Warsh's Federal Reserve leadership and elevated CME margin requirements.
Monarch's valuation model, which assesses above-ground gold stocks against reserve-currency money supply, places gold's estimated value in a range of $3,248–$4,595 per ounce, with a midpoint of $3,922. The October low near $3,870 was within this modelled range, suggesting that prices had re-anchored towards the firm's estimate of fair value.
Joglekar noted that domestic 24-carat retail gold, which was around ₹1,30,860 per 10 grams on Dhanteras 2025, was trading at approximately ₹1,40,000–₹1,41,500 ahead of Dhanteras 2026, marking a year-on-year gain of 7%–8%.
“For long-term investors, this Dhanteras represents a classic entry point. Speculative froth has been purged, while the underlying macroeconomic tailwinds remain intact,” he said.