Anthropic’s $2 trillion IPO dream faces reality check as investors cut valuation expectations

Anthropic’s proposed initial public offering is shaping up to be a major test of investor appetite for artificial intelligence, with the company targeting a valuation of around $2 trillion. At that level, Anthropic would be valued above SpaceX’s $1.77 trillion valuation at its IPO earlier this year and Saudi Aramco’s roughly $1.7 trillion valuation when it listed in 2019.

However, investor expectations around Anthropic have already moderated following its third-quarter results, with some investors now putting the potential valuation closer to $1.5 trillion. The shift has raised questions over whether the company can sustain the rapid growth that has driven its valuation.

Anthropic’s $2 trillion target versus the SpaceX benchmark

SpaceX’s blockbuster IPO provides an important benchmark for Anthropic, although the two companies have very different business models. SpaceX went public at a valuation of around $1.77 trillion and raised $75 billion, making it the largest IPO by funds raised. Anthropic, if it achieves a $2 trillion valuation, would become one of the most highly valued companies ever to enter public markets. “SpaceX’s story is by and large a different story. We can’t make an apple-to-apple comparison with respect to the business models of SpaceX as well as Anthropic,” said Kranthi Bathini, director-equity strategy at WealthMills Securities.

While SpaceX has businesses across launch services, satellites, and space infrastructure, Anthropic’s valuation is largely a bet on the future growth of AI, including the adoption of AI agents.

Anthropic has continued to post strong revenue growth, but the pace has started to moderate, making the sustainability of that growth a key issue for investors. The Claude maker's revenue rose 45% sequentially to $16.8 billion in the third quarter, from $11.6 billion in Q2 and $4.7 billion in Q1.

Anthropic’s aggressive growth is also coming with enormous infrastructure commitments. The company has committed to around $518 billion in future cloud, computing and infrastructure spending, highlighting the scale of capital required to support its AI ambitions.

“The core question here is whether the same kind of growth, the massive, ballistic growth, is expected to be continued or not,” Bathini said.

At the same time, Bathini said the long-term opportunity for Anthropic remains significant as AI adoption is still at an early stage. “AI is in the very preliminary stage. The penetration of AI agents is at a very early stage,” he said.

The challenge, however, is that investors may already be paying for a large part of that future growth. “Majority of the growth prospects also are baked into the price at this point of time,” Bathini said.

That leaves Anthropic with a difficult balancing act ahead of its potential listing. A valuation closer to $1.5 trillion would still make it one of the world’s most valuable companies, but a $2 trillion valuation would put it above the level at which SpaceX entered public markets.

The IPO could also establish an important benchmark for other large private AI companies, including OpenAI, as they consider public listings. Bathini said Anthropic could benefit from being among the first major frontier AI companies to establish a public-market valuation. “Definitely, you have the first-mover advantage at the initial stage, in terms of its valuations,” he said.

Whether that advantage translates into a $2 trillion valuation, however, will depend on whether Anthropic can convince investors that its extraordinary growth can continue. “We need to wait and watch a couple of other quarters to look into the valuations, the fair valuations,” Bathini said.