Aided by strong demand recovery, credit ratio rebounds to 1.33 in H2FY21, from 0.54 in H1FY21. GDP could grow at 11% in FY22, but the resurgence in Covid-19 cases is a key downside risk, says CRISIL.
While Indian banks' improved financial metrics do not fully reflect the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the under–capitalised PSBs are likely to remain risk averse and lose market share.
According to the RBI, the gross NPA ratio of all scheduled commercial banks may increase from 7.5% in September 2020 to 13.5% by September 2021, and even escalate to 14.8% in severe stress scenario.
