Despite speculations that India and the U.S. might finalise a long-awaited trade agreement during commerce minister Piyush Goyal’s visit to Washington after a series of positive talks, nothing concrete has emerged so far, apart from both countries' willingness to continue the ongoing discussions on the much-hyped Free Trade Agreement (FTA). The commerce ministry, in its latest statement, has said the recent visit of an Indian delegation, led by Goyal, to the U.S. from September 22-24 witnessed constructive meetings with the Trump government on various aspects of the trade deal.

Both sides exchanged views on possible contours of the deal and decided to continue the engagements with a view to achieving an early conclusion of the trade deal. “The meetings with businesses and investors evoked a positive response. The business leaders reposed confidence in the Indian growth story and expressed their desire to intensify their business activities in India,” the statement said.

Goyal-led delegation held meetings with U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer and U.S. ambassador-designate to India, Sergio Gor. Apart from meetings with the government representatives on bilateral trade matters, they also met key U.S. businesses and investors on promoting trade and investment between the two nations.

Before this, U.S. trade negotiator Brendan Lynch was in India for a day-long trade discussion. The visit came after both Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi posted friendly messages on social media, indicating a mutual desire to continue the talks for cooperation in bilateral trade.

The trade talks between India and the U.S. were in full swing until Trump announced unilateral imposition of 50 % tariffs on goods originating from India last month. The decision slowed down the bilateral FTA talks as the U.S. negotiators cancelled a scheduled visit to India in August. Incidentally, trade negotiators of both countries had continued to be in touch through weekly virtual meetings even when formal India-U.S. talks faced a temporary setback in the wake of the punitive tariff imposition.

The trade meeting is taking place amid the chaos triggered by the U.S. president’s new proclamation on the H-1B visa fee hike and technology firms urging employees to return immediately. The White House has clarified on the social media platform X that the payment of $100,000 would not be an annual fee, but must be paid as a one-time charge when applying for an H-1B visa.  

In February, during Modi’s visit to Washington, both leaders launched the new initiative “U.S.-India COMPACT (Catalysing Opportunities for Military Partnership, Accelerated Commerce & Technology) for the 21st Century” to drive transformative change across key pillars of cooperation. Under this initiative, they had committed to a results-driven agenda with initial outcomes this year to demonstrate the level of trust for a mutually beneficial partnership.

The joint statement issued after the meeting said India and the U.S. will negotiate the first tranche of a mutually beneficial, multi-sector Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) by the fall of 2025. The proposed BTA is meant to strengthen and deepen bilateral trade across the goods and services sector, and will work towards increasing market access, reducing tariff and non-tariff barriers, and deepening supply chain integration.

Trump’s tariff measures were implemented during the BTA negotiations. The U.S. had initially imposed a 25% tariff on a substantial number of goods of Indian origin, stating the country was having a trade deficit with India. An additional 25% tariff was imposed as a punishment for continuing trade relationships with Russia in spite of the U.S. wanting India to stop the purchase of cheap Russian oil. The tariffs continue to be in force, and the impact of the additional tariff on Indian exports to the US is expected to be reflected in India-US trade numbers in the coming months. An early progress in India-US trade talks could be good news for Indian exporters.