With prompt policy interventions, India can transition from passive import dependency in critical minerals to active value-chain leadership, suggests a policy brief published by Delhi based think tank Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER).

It proposes that India should increase local processing capacity, establish trusted international mineral relationships, and boost innovation in low-risk battery chemistries and recycling technology. A forward thinking institutional design based on integrated governance and ESG-first development will be critical to maintaining this change, it says.

Securing India’s Critical Mineral Future

The policy brief  titled ‘Securing India’s Critical Mineral Future: Geopolitical Foresight, Research Priorities, and Institutional Culture for Cobalt, Lithium and Nickel’ by ICRIER researcher Amit Kumar foresees supply constraints as a key vulnerability before India as new era of resource nationalism could reshape global critical mineral markets by early 2030s. ‘Major resource-holding countries, seeking to maximise domestic value addition, (could) impose stringent restrictions on the export of battery-grade lithium, nickel and cobalt. (Unless addressed,) India’s incremental and fragmented efforts to address supply vulnerabilities over the previous decade (could) prove insufficient as despite production-linked incentives and initial giga-factory investments, the country remains structurally dependent on imported midstream materials’, the policy brief says.

The paper also projects an optimistic scenario for year 2030 where India can achieve strategic autonomy through alliances and innovation. However, for this to happen, India should build on detailed import-dependency assessments, such as the data showing 38.23 percent of lithium hydroxide/oxide supply from China, and 56.83 percent of nickel hydroxide from Australia, and invest purposefully in domestic refining infrastructure for lithium and nickel chemicals and precursor production, it says. These processing plants, located in mineral-processing zones in states such as Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, should get co-financed through PLI schemes and global strategic-partner joint ventures with Japan, South Korea and Australia, the paper proposes.

Simultaneously, the policy brief also wants India to negotiate Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and offtake-investment frameworks with lower-risk jurisdictions in Latin America (Chile, Argentina), Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Philippines) and friendly OECD nations (Canada, Norway) to lock in a long-term supply of processed battery-grade intermediates. These deals should include clauses for technology transfer, co-refining investment, traceability of ESG standards, and preferential access, it says.

India is 100% import dependent for 10 critical minerals

Currently, India is 100% import dependent for 10 critical minerals, including lithium, cobalt, nickel, vanadium, niobium, and germanium. Several minerals rely heavily on China either directly or indirectly, particularly through refined or intermediate products, while others depend on politically or economically sensitive regions. In many cases, supply chains pass through multiple countries, increasing exposure to trade disruptions, export controls, and geopolitical tensions. The policy brief situates India’s critical minerals dependency within this evolving geopolitical landscape and examines how India’s critical mineral demand intersects with global mineral markets, analyses domestic and international policy responses, and evaluates the constraints that continue to shape India’s options.