India’s merchandise exports to the US grew 7.2% on-year to $6.9 billion in August from $6.4 billion in the same month last fiscal. However, it was slower than the $8 billion in July 2025 and an average of $8.4 billion between April and July 2025, said Crisil in a note titled, “One More Healthy Export Print”.

“The slowdown reflects the impact of higher US tariffs, which kicked in at 50% with effect from August 27. Consequently, we expect the September data to show more impact,” it added.  

“While US export growth softened, non-US exports accelerated, rising 6.6% on-year in August, compared with 4.3% on year last month. Merchandise imports fell 10.1% on-year to $61.59 billion in August 2025 on account of a significant (51.2%) contraction in gems and jewellery imports (due to statistical high-base effect), compared with a 25.9% growth in July,”  

“India’s merchandise exports rose 6.7% on-year to $35.10 billion in August 2025, compared with $32.89 billion in August 2024 and 7.3% in July 2025, following broad-based growth in the exports of oil, gems and jewellery, and core, the report pointed out.

“On the other hand, merchandise imports fell 10.1% on-year to $61.59 billion from $68.53 billion. Consequently, the merchandise trade deficit fell to $26.49 billion from $35.64 billion,” it said.

“Gems and jewellery exports were up 15.6% on-year in August, but slower compared with 28.9% in July. Meanwhile, oil exports, which had declined in the past three months, rebounded with a 6.7% on-year growth in August (-25.1% in July),” it added.

“Core exports, which account for the bulk of India's total merchandise exports, grew 6.1% in August on-year, albeit slower compared with 12.7% in July. Core imports contracted 0.9% vs 6.9% in July, reversing the trend seen for the past 16 months,” it added.  

“India’s merchandise exports face headwinds this fiscal due to the tariff hikes by the US and slowing global growth. From August 27, a 25% penalty tariff for purchasing Russian oil was levied on Indian exports to the US, in addition to the earlier 25% reciprocal tariff, raising the total tariff burden to 50%,” Crisil said.

“Where the tariffs will eventually settle remains uncertain as negotiations continue, but reciprocal tariffs are expected to affect exports. To mitigate some of the impact, India is pursuing trade deals with other countries,” it added.

“Geopolitical uncertainties and tariffs are also weighing on global growth. S&P Global projects world growth to slow to 2.9% in 2025 from 3.3% in 2024, with growth in the US—currently India’s largest export destination—falling to 1.7% from 2.8%,” it added.

“The World Trade Organization expects global merchandise trade volumes to fall 0.2% on-year in 2025 from 2.9%. Despite these headwinds, India’s current account deficit (CAD) is expected to remain manageable, supported by strong services trade, remittances and softer crude oil prices. We forecast CAD to be at 1% of GDP this fiscal, compared with 0.6% last fiscal,” the agency pointed out.