US–India Trade deal unlikely to disrupt India’s oil refining sector: ICRA
US–India Trade deal unlikely to disrupt India’s oil refining sector: ICRA
ICRA estimates that the replacement of Russian crude with market-priced crude would lead to an increase in the import bill of the country by less than 2%
Industry experts say India’s oil refining sector is well-positioned to absorb any shift away from Russian crude under the proposed US–India trade deal, with minimal impact on costs.
Prashant Vasisht, Senior Vice President and Co-Group Head, Corporate Ratings, ICRA Ltd, says, “The announcement of the US-India trade deal reportedly includes removing the 25% penal tariffs on India, with the latter agreeing to stop the purchase of crude oil from Russia. Additionally, India is to step up the purchase of US crude oil and potentially start buying oil from Venezuela. For the Indian refining sector, there are ample avenues, including the US, to purchase crude as Russian crude accounted for less than 2% of Indian crude imports prior to FY2023.”
According to him, the discounts on Russian crude oil were marginal prior to the US announcing sanctions on some Russian crude suppliers in October 2025, and ICRA estimates that the replacement of Russian crude with market-priced crude would lead to an increase in the import bill of the country by less than 2%. “Additionally, Venezuelan crudes are heavy and sour and therefore cheaper and would be of interest to Indian refiners, many of whom can process these types of crudes."
Nifty Oil and Gas index reacts
Constituents in the Nifty Oil and Gas index showcased mixed reactions to the trade deal. The Nifty Oil and Gas index hit an intraday high of 12,172.70, rising 4.15%, and was last trading at 11,859.35.
Adani Total Gas topped the chart, jumping 5.86% to ₹549.45, followed by Reliance Industries, which rose 3.85% to ₹1,443.90. GAIL added 1.85% to ₹163.35, while logistics and gas infrastructure plays Aegis Logistics and Petronet LNG gained 1.34% and 1.33%, closing at ₹712.05 and ₹294.05, respectively. GSPL climbed 1.02% to ₹302.65, and IOC advanced 0.92% to ₹166.13. City gas distributors posted modest gains, with MGL up 0.60% to ₹1,056.50 and Gujarat Gas edging 0.35% higher to ₹417.00. Upstream major ONGC rose 0.30% to ₹254.70, while BPCL inched up 0.25% to ₹367.60.
On the downside, Castrol India slipped marginally by 0.10% to ₹184.92. PSU names like Oil India fell 0.36% to ₹481.55, IGL declined 0.51% to ₹172.24, and HPCL emerged as the top laggard, down 1.22% to ₹447.70.