WTI crude down 12.5% YTD, slips below $63 as oversupply fears, Middle East tensions, and new Russia sanctions pressure prices

/ 2 min read
Summary

It is worth noting that the recognition of a Palestinian state by four Western nations has increased tensions in the Middle East, a major oil centre.

Today, WTI crude edged back above $63 per barrel after three consecutive days of losses
Today, WTI crude edged back above $63 per barrel after three consecutive days of losses

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices have declined sharply over the past year, with the benchmark now trading at around $62.09 per barrel, representing a 12.58% decrease from the same time last year. Over the previous year, it experienced brief rallies and deep declines, with prices fluctuating between highs above $75 and lows near $60. On MCX, crude oil traded around ₹5,489 per barrel today. The prices have stayed steady over the past month.

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On Friday, WTI crude fell to $62.6 per barrel, pressured by oversupply concerns and a stronger U.S. dollar. Oil prices slipped below $63/bbl after reports that Iraq has given preliminary approval to resume pipeline oil exports from its Kurdistan region through Turkey.

Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities, said, "Oil markets were already under pressure due to concerns over weak global fuel demand and geopolitical developments, including U.S. President Trump’s call for lower oil prices to increase pressure on Russia amid the ongoing war in Ukraine."

Chainwala said that today, WTI crude edged back above $63 per barrel after three consecutive days of losses, supported by expectations of additional EU sanctions against Russia, escalating geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East, and continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. "However, sharp upside may be capped as Iraq has been ramping up exports as it gradually unwinds voluntary production cuts under the OPEC+ agreement," she said.

It is also worth noting that the recognition of a Palestinian state by four Western nations has increased tensions in the Middle East, a major oil centre.

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Furthermore, the European Commission proposed a 19th sanctions package against Russia on Friday, targeting traders, refineries, and petrochemical firms in third countries, including China, for breaching existing Russian energy import rules.

According to Iraq’s state oil marketer, SOMO, exports are expected to rise to between 3.4 and 3.45 million barrels per day in September, following an average of 3.38 million barrels per day in August.

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