The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said India will receive "above-normal rainfall" in the upcoming southwest monsoon (June to September 2025), projecting the monthly average to be over 108% of the Long Period Average (LPA) in June alone. "Above normal rainfall is most likely to occur over the country as a whole during the monsoon season (June to September, 2025)," the IMD said in a press release on May 27. This means India is likely to receive 8% more rainfall than its historical average.

In its updated long-range forecast for the Southwest Monsoon Seasonal Rainfall during 2025, IMD says quantitatively, the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September 2025) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of LPA, with a model error of ± 4%. "During June to September 2025, normal to above normal rainfall is very likely over most  parts of the country except some areas of Northwest and East India and many areas of Northeast India, where below normal rainfall is very likely."

The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm, IMD said. Region-wise, the IMD says the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September, 2025) rainfall is most likely to be above normal over Central India and South Peninsular India (less than 106% of LPA), normal over Northwest India (92-108% of LPA) and below normal over Northeast India (<94% of LPA).

The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ), consisting of most of the rainfed agriculture areas in the country, is most likely to be above normal (over 106% of LPA).

During June 2025, Normal to above normal monthly rainfall is very likely over most parts of the country, except some southern parts of peninsular India and parts of Northwest and Northeast India, where below normal rainfall is likely, the Met department observed.

On temperature trends, the IMD observed that in June 2025, normal-to-below normal monthly maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, except many regions of Northwest India and Northeast India, where above-normal temperatures are very likely. Above-normal monthly minimum temperatures are likely across most parts of the country, except some parts of Central India and the adjoining south Peninsula, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are very likely.

The Met department says currently, neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS), as well as other climate model forecasts, indicate that the neutral ENSO conditions are likely to continue during the monsoon season.  

At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are observed over the Indian Ocean. The latest MMCFS forecast indicates that weak negative IOD conditions are likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season.

The department warned that above-normal rainfall carries benefits for agriculture and water resources but also introduces risks such as flooding, disruptions to transportation, public health concerns, and harm to ecosystems. "To address these risks, strategies can include reinforcing infrastructure, making use of IMD's early warning systems, strengthening surveillance and conservation initiatives, and establishing response mechanisms within particularly vulnerable sectors."

The IMD will issue its rainfall forecast for July 2025 in the last week of June.