India’s coking coal demand is estimated to see a 55% growth from 87 million tonnes (MT) in FY25 to 135 MT by 2030, as the steel industry is undergoing a significant expansion, according to an Indian Steel Association (ISA) and EY-Parthenon report.

India is the world’s second-largest steel producer, and the domestic steel industry accounts for 95% of the country's coking coal demand.

Currently, India meets about 90% of its coking coal demand through imports. Coking coal imports are projected to grow significantly as the nation targets 300 MT of steel production capacity by 2030, says the 'India’s Coking Coal Strategy: Building Resilience through Innovation, Sustainability and Policy' report.

Australia remains the dominant source of India’s coking coal, with the USA, Canada, and Russia together making up a significant share of imports. To reduce reliance on this concentrated group of suppliers, India is also exploring newer sources such as Mongolia and Mozambique.

Domestic production is targeted to more than double from 66.8 MT raw coal in FY24 to 140 MT by FY30, supported by reforms and beneficiation initiatives. The blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) route accounts for approximately 65% of installed capacity and 58% of actual production, with the steel industry consuming 95% of India's total coking coal demand. This reliance means demand is projected to increase sharply from 87 MT in FY25 to 135 MT by 2030.

To strengthen self-reliance, the government’s Atmanirbhar Coal Mission under Mission Coking Coal seeks to scale domestic raw output to 140 MT by FY30, with 105 MT coming from Coal India and 35 MT from private allocations, while enhancing the washed coal capacity to 15 MT. Policy reforms, including 100% FDI in mining, revenue-sharing auctions, and 20–30% capital subsidies for washeries, aim to reduce import dependence from around 90% today to below 80% by 2030, accelerate beneficiation, and enhance supply security.

''While domestic production is projected to double by 2030, imports will still play a defining role in meeting demand. This dependence makes the sector vulnerable to price volatility and supply chain shocks'', says Vinayak Vipul, Partner, Business Consulting, EY Parthenon. India must accelerate beneficiation to unlock the true value of its reserves, diversify sourcing to reduce risk, and invest in technologies that pave the way toward low-carbon steel, he said. 

Expanded domestic beneficiation and enhanced washed coal capacity will help output reach 15 MT, and new supply corridors aim to reduce this dependency to under 80% by 2030. Mission Coking Coal, WDO (Washery Developer–Operator) models, and First Mile Connectivity projects aim to increase domestic production. The report concludes that a balanced approach, strengthening domestic production, diversifying imports, building stockpiles, and advancing decarbonization technologies, will be essential for India to meet its ambitious steel production targets while aligning with its 2070 net-zero goal.