India has a long runway for sustained air travel growth: Boeing

U.S. aviation giant Boeing on Thursday said Indian airlines will propel demand for 2,835 new aircraft over the next 20 years, saying the country’s rapidly growing domestic market supports the South Asia region’s annual traffic growth of more than 7%.

Boeing forecasts India and South Asia’s commercial airplane fleet to grow nearly four-fold over the next 20 years, building on sustained fleet growth throughout the last decade. The quadrupling of India’s market size opens tremendous opportunities, it says.

The aircraft maker says Indians moving from railways to air travel offers the largest potential to boost demand further. Around 1.8 crore passengers travel through trains every day whereas only 4.3 lakh people fly. Boeing says just over 2% shift in passenger traffic will double the aviation market in India.

The U.S. aircraft maker believes the upcoming Jewar airport in Noida and the Navi Mumbai airport to be a catalyst for Indian aviation when fully operational.

Investments in airports are helping build infrastructure across the country. About $12 billion of this investment came in the last two years. India has 138 operational airports currently. The country is expected to have 300 airports in 2047. UDAN scheme is enhancing connectivity and making flying affordable, says Boeing.

On headwinds for the Indian aviation market, Boeing counts jet fuel volatility, currency pressures, imbalance in international long haul market share and slow infrastructure growing compared to market growth.

It, however, believes that high domestic load factors high, strengthening yields and e-commerce and manufacturing growth will act as tailwinds for the industry.

Domestic air traffic is expected to remain the largest and fastest-growing segment in India’s travel market, according to Boeing’s current Commercial Market Outlook (CMO). This projected traffic growth will be enabled by further low-cost carrier expansion and network diversification as airlines offer more routes and destinations throughout the region.

Single-aisle airplanes, such as the 737 MAX, will account for nearly nine out of 10 commercial jet deliveries in the forecast period, says Boeing. The region’s wide-body fleet will quadruple as carriers leverage airplanes like the 787 Dreamliner and 777X to further develop long-haul networks, particularly from India to North America, where capacity has doubled in the past decade.

"The India and South Asia region continues to be the world’s fastest-growing commercial aviation market due to strong economic and trade growth, rising household incomes and investments in infrastructure and development," says Ashwin Naidu, Boeing managing director of Commercial Marketing for India and South Asia. "As our CMO shows, people will have greater access to air travel, and the region’s airlines will require a modern fuel-efficient fleet to meet increased demand over the next two decades.”

The CMO also forecasts India and South Asia’s cargo freighter fleet, including new and converted models,will grow five-fold as the region expands its role in global supply chains, advanced manufacturing and e-commerce.

Demand for pilots, cabin crew and technicians will quadruple to 129,000 along with commercial airplane fleet expansion ─ representing the fastest growth rate of any region globally.