The June rollover data reveals that the Nifty series concluded with strong bullish momentum, indicating institutional investors’ confidence in the domestic market despite concerns about underlying volatility. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the cash segment, accumulating equity worth ₹6,923 crore.

The NSE benchmark Nifty50 posted a fourth consecutive monthly gain by advancing 3%, while the index remained largely rangebound for most of the series, managing to reclaim the 25,500 level into expiry.

During the June series, Nifty futures achieved a rollover rate of 80% versus 79% in the previous month, with the open interest base increasing 9% from the end of expiry, data compiled by YES Securities showed. Open interest (OI) jumped from May's 1.49 crore shares to 1.62 crore shares in the June series, indicating the bullish sentiment established by the May rollover data trends.

During the period under review, the index future long and short ratio improved amid the addition of longs and partial short covering.

The May rollover data period witnessed a sharp decline in volatility, with India's VIX sliding below 13, marking its lowest reading since March 2025, suggesting continued complacency in volatility expectations.

The data showed that major U.S. equity indices maintained stability with the Nasdaq-100 registering a fresh all-time high during the June series. U.S. Dollar Index, despite intermittent recovery attempts, failed to sustain and declined further toward the 97 mark. Gold prices lacked directional conviction, while Silver surged to a 13-year high, reaffirming its bullish trend. Brent Crude witnessed volatile trading but retained a broadly negative undertone.

FinNifty, Bank Nifty lead

The Nifty Financial Services Index (FinNifty) emerged as an outperformer, rallying around 6% and reclaiming fresh all-time highs post a multi-week consolidation. This was followed by Bank Nifty, which closed 3% higher. Auto and metal sectors also ended in green but underperformed the broader benchmark.

On the other hand, IT and Pharma indices remained directionless with muted performance. FMCG Index traded in a narrow band and declined for the second consecutive series.

The data showed that Nifty Smallcap 100 maintained a constructive structure with a 5% gain.

Outlook for July series

Nifty’s consolidation zone has shifted its structural base upward to the 25,000 mark, said Amit Trivedi, Senior Technical Analyst, YES Securities. A brief phase of throwback or minor consolidation is anticipated, post which the index could progress toward the 25,800–26,000 zone, he said.

“We reiterate our bullish stance on Indian Bank. A constructive price structure, supported by long build-up and rolls of 73% suggests more room on the upside,” Trivedi said.

He recommended ‘Buy’ on Indian Bank July future in a price range of ₹630-635, with a stop loss at ₹600.

Trivedi remains structurally positive on the banking, financial services, and insurance (BFSI) sector. “Private banking majors such as HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank are expected to exhibit a steady upward trajectory. Within the insurance space, any pullback could offer a favourable risk-reward entry.”

Though metal stocks witnessed a mixed trend, Tata Steel and SAIL are positioned to outperform within the broader metal basket, he said. “FMCG index remained under pressure, however, the ITC-to-FMCG index ratio has risen, indicating relative strength in ITC. Sustained stability may lead to mean-reversion-based upside.”

Among large-cap IT names, he recommended “buy-on-dips” strategies for HCLTech and Wipro shares, citing supportive trends.  For the mid and small-cap indices, which retained their upward trajectory, he suggested accumulation opportunities on selective pullbacks, particularly in cement and auto ancillary segments.