Gold prices in India slipped below the ₹1 lakh mark on Wednesday, 25 June 2025, with Ahmedabad quoting around ₹99,500 per 10 grams — a level 3% lower than the all-time high. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures settled at ₹97,023 per 10 grams. Globally, gold was trading at $3,328.92 an ounce at 1:00 p.m. IST.

After a sharp rally earlier this year, bullion has entered a consolidation phase, weighed down by easing geopolitical tensions and a renewed focus on macro-economic fundamentals.

“Gold prices have stabilised at lower levels and are now consolidating within a range after recent selling pressure,” said Aksha Kamboj, Vice-President of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association and Executive Chairperson of Aspect Global Ventures. “With tensions in the Middle East easing, attention has shifted to the U.S. economy, tariffs, and the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates. The upcoming U.S. PCE data on Friday will be a key trigger for direction.”

The ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel — a conflict that had driven safe-haven buying in recent weeks — has deflated some of the geopolitical premium built into gold. Many traders have unwound their risk hedges, especially those linked to potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for nearly 20 % of the world’s oil shipments.

Dr Renisha Chainani, Head of Research at Augmont, pointed out that the primary pressure on gold now stems from reduced geopolitical risks rather than central-bank policy. She noted that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in his prepared remarks to Congress, said: “The Fed must prevent a one-time increase in the price level from becoming an ongoing inflation problem by keeping inflation expectations well anchored.”

“Even though these remarks support the possibility of rate decreases in the year’s final quarter, the main force behind the present price movement seems to be the reduction of geopolitical risks,” Chainani explained. She also warned that unless gold holds above $3,330 (₹97,000), it could retrace to $3,275 (₹96,000) in the near term.

Echoing this cautious view, Rahul Kalantri, Vice-President (Commodities) at Mehta Equities Ltd, noted that gold suffered its biggest one-day drop since 25 November 2024, falling by 2.91 % to ₹96,500 on the MCX. “The ceasefire confirmation by the U.S. President led to heavy profit-booking. Powell’s speech was broadly in line with expectations but failed to provide immediate support to precious metals,” he said.

Still, Kalantri believes the weakness in the dollar index may lend some support to gold. He pegs key support for gold at $3,300–$3,277 (₹96,450–₹95,910) and resistance at $3,348–$3,365 (₹97,650–₹98,100).

For now, markets remain on edge, tracking every development in the Middle East while parsing U.S. economic signals for signs of a possible rate cut later this year. Until then, gold appears to be stuck in a tug-of-war between cooling tensions and the allure of a more dovish Fed.