Trump’s tariff offensive: How a friendship with Modi soured into a battle over trade; full timeline here

/ 4 min read
Summary

Trump-Modi bonhomie notwithstanding, the relationship between India and U.S. is now at its nadir. Here's a full lowdown on the convoluted issue of tariffs.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi (right) with U.S. President, Donald Trump
Prime Minister Narendra Modi (right) with U.S. President, Donald Trump | Credits: PIB

The tariffs imposed upon India by the Donald Trump administration has been in vogue, thereby, pushing the relationship between the two countries to its lowest levels.

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Now, as reported by CNBC and Financial Times, there have been reports that Trump has asked the European Union (EU) to also come on board and impose penalising tariffs, amounting to a whopping 100% on China and India, for the two countries' continued purchasing of Russian oil. This thorny issue is viewed by Trump as crucial to stopping the ongoing war in Ukraine. As reported by CNBC, Europe may not comply with Trump's demands.

But the issue between India and the U.S. is an intractable once. There have also been reports that backchannel talks between the two countries have not stopped, and both New Delhi as well as Washington are still keen on signing a comprehensive free trade agreement. Moreover, the issue of tariffs has been a convoluted one, with many developments taking place since Trump assumed office.

The important point to consider here is that both India's PM Narendra Modi and Trump share a cosy bonhomie between them.

But truth be told, Trump’s trade war with India actually began with a motorcycle. In February 2018, during Trump's first term in office, he publicly blasted India’s 100% import duty on Harley-Davidson bikes as “unfair,” pointing out that the United States imposed “zero tax” on Indian motorcycles.

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Within weeks, the rhetoric turned into action. By March 2018, Trump slapped 25% tariffs on Indian steel and aluminium as part of his broader protectionist agenda. The following year, in March 2019, India lost its preferential access to the U.S. market when Trump ended New Delhi’s Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) benefits.

The Howdy Modi event in 2019 was seen as a landmark one between the to countries, with Trump hailing Modi as a great friend of the U.S. It seemed that the relationship between the two nations could not be better. But underneath the surface, there was discontent simmering. By October 2019, just weeks after the Modi-Trump event, Trump coined a phrase that would haunt India for years: “tariff king.”

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The man who had once hailed Modi as a “true friend” now cast India, within days in fact, as a serial trade offender with some of the highest tariff rates in the world.

The downward spiral culminated in Trump’s second term. Modi’s February 2025 visit to Washington seemed to reset ties, with both sides talking up the prospect of a comprehensive trade deal and even setting an ambitious target: doubling bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030. Between March and July, five rounds of negotiations followed, and Indian officials hinted that tariffs could be capped at just 15%. Optimism was high.

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Then came July 30, 2025. Instead of announcing a breakthrough, Trump stunned New Delhi with a 25% tariff on Indian goods. His social media message was scathing: “India’s tariffs are far too high, among the highest in the world, and they have the most strenuous and obnoxious non-monetary trade barriers of any country.”

The next day, his rhetoric escalated further. “I don’t care what India does with Russia,” Trump posted. “They can take their dead economies down together for all I care.” The insult stung: India, after all, had been the world’s fastest-growing major economy, expanding at over 6% even as others struggled.

Adding insult to injury, Trump announced a trade deal with Pakistan the very same day—praising Islamabad’s cooperation and even suggesting Pakistan might one day sell oil to India. For New Delhi, already reeling from a recent terror attack in Pahalgam, this was salt in fresh wounds.

The final blow came on August 6, 2025, when Trump signed an executive order doubling the tariff to 50%, placing India among the most heavily penalized nations in U.S. trade history—surpassing even China at the height of their trade war.

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The contrast could not be starker. From the roaring cheers of 50,000 people at the Houston rally to 50% tariffs threatening Indian exports of textiles, gems, pharmaceuticals, and auto parts, the relationship had soured into the worst trade crisis between the two countries in two decades. What began with a complaint about Harley-Davidson motorcycles had spiralled into a full-scale economic confrontation, endangering decades of strategic partnership.

Prime Minister Modi, speaking days later at the MS Swaminathan Centenary International Conference, struck a defiant tone. Without naming Trump, he made his stance clear: India would put its people first. “For us, the interest of our farmers is our top priority,” Modi said. “India will never compromise on the interests of farmers, fishermen, and dairy farmers—even if that means bearing the burden of America’s steepest tariffs.”

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Now, while diplomats from both the countries continue to sees pockets of optimism, hoping that the ties between the two countries are strong enough to tide through the present crisis, but there is no denying the fact that the trust that U.S. once commanded in India, is lost.

Whether irrevocably, remains to be seen.

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