Festive spirit and steady demand put housing back on a growth track

India’s housing market enters the festive quarter with a sense of renewed confidence. Close to 97,000 homes were sold in Q3 2025, a performance that points to stabilisation after a volatile first half of the year. More importantly, overall sales value rose 14% to ₹1.52 lakh crore, with strong traction in premium and luxury segments as well as steady demand across mid and affordable categories. For a sector that thrives on sentiment as much as numbers, this convergence of cultural optimism and market stability sets the stage for a defining festive season.

The value trend is particularly telling. Homes priced above ₹1.5 crore captured the largest share of new launches, yet the mid-income and affordable segments also continued to see consistent traction. This balance is critical—it ensures that the housing market is not skewed only to the top end but remains broad-based, reflecting the aspirations of a diverse set of buyers. For developers, it signals that the market is deep enough to support launches across categories. For policymakers, it underlines the importance of keeping affordability aligned with demand.

Festive months have always carried disproportionate weight in India’s housing story. Families often view the festive season culminating in Diwali as the right time for long-term decisions, and a home remains the most meaningful of them. Developers, in turn, align with this sentiment by easing entry barriers through flexible payment plans, waived charges, or lifestyle upgrades. This year, such measures are particularly important. Buyer caution is evident, but so too is intent. When sentiment and incentives converge, decision-making accelerates, and the festive quarter has historically been the period when this happens most visibly.

Macroeconomic conditions are also working in favour of housing demand this quarter. Lending rates have remained steady with the repo rate held at 5.5%, giving buyers and developers a predictable financial backdrop at a time of heightened global uncertainty. Combined with the recent GST rationalisation on construction materials, which has eased input costs, this stability is reinforcing affordability and sentiment across the market. In contrast, gold and equity markets have been volatile, pushing many families to view real estate as a safer long-term investment. If banks transmit the benefits of stable policy quickly, the festive season could become a launchpad for sustained momentum through the rest of the financial year.

Geography is shaping the future just as much as affordability. The peripheries of metros—supported by metro extensions, expressways, and suburban rail—are drawing steady demand. Increasingly, Tier II and III cities are no longer secondary players; they are becoming key markets. In 2024, 44% of the 3,294 acres acquired by developers were in these cities. Jaipur’s 65% rise in project prices over the past year is one example of how smaller hubs are scaling quickly. Similar stories are playing out in Lucknow, Coimbatore, and NCR extensions such as Panipat and Karnal. This spread of demand is healthy: it relieves metros of pressure while building new centres of growth, fully aligned with the national vision of Viksit Bharat 2047.

The financial environment has also been steady. Home loan rates remain in the 8.25–9.5% range, with RBI keeping its repo rate at 5.5%. Predictability in borrowing costs gives families the confidence to plan long-term, while developers benefit from stability in capital flows. Add to this the growing participation of institutional investors—ranging from private equity funds to high-net-worth individuals, and confidence in Indian housing is not limited to buyers but extends across the investment ecosystem.

What makes this festive quarter stand apart is not any single factor but its convergence. Demand has stabilised after early-year volatility. Value is rising even as volumes adjust. Policy reforms are reducing costs and widening affordability. Infrastructure is expanding the geography of demand. And cultural sentiment is about to add its traditional push. In a market where timing is often decisive, this alignment of fundamentals and sentiment presents a rare opportunity.

Real estate has always reflected India’s economic rhythm—subject to cycles but consistently emerging stronger after each phase. If the first half of 2025 highlighted the sector’s vulnerabilities, the festive quarter may reaffirm its strengths. Housing is not only about short-term sales numbers; it is about anchoring aspirations, creating jobs, and shaping urban futures. As families prepare for new beginnings this season, the sector could move beyond volatility and reinforce its role as one of the most enduring drivers of India’s growth story.

(Shekhar Patel is the President of CREDAI, the apex body of private real estate developers in India)