Global trade policy uncertainty surges 386% in Q2, India's foreign trade shows resilience: FinMin

Even as the global Trade Policy Uncertainty (TPU) Index recorded a year-on-year growth of 386.4 per cent in the July-September 2025 quarter, India’s trade performance in the first half of FY26 showed steady momentum and resilience, the Monthly Economic Review (MER) of the Finance Ministry for September indicates.

Citing data from Global Trade Alert, the MER pointed out that global trade policy uncertainty reached unprecedented levels during this quarter. The TPU index value in Q3 CY2025 remains the second-highest recorded since 1960 in any quarter. According to MER, the number of discriminatory trade policies issued by countries (the US tariff hikes leading the list) so far in 2025 was 2725 as against 2813 discriminatory policies issued during 2024.

In the case of Indian exports, the total goods & services exports registered a growth of 4.4 per cent (YoY) in H1 FY26, reaching $ 413.3 billion, the ministry’s economic review said. “While merchandise exports have grown by 3 per cent (YoY), services exports grew by 6.1 per cent (YoY) during the period, reaching $ 193.2 billion. This represents the highest value of services exports recorded in H1 of any fiscal year since the year 2000”, the report said. This strength in the services exports also generated a net services surplus of $ 95.5 billion, which narrowed the total trade deficit to $ 59.5 billion, a reduction of 2.3 per cent compared to H1 FY25.

Driven by a 42% increase in electronic goods exports, India’s non-petroleum, non-gems, and jewellery exports registered a strong 7.5 per cent (YoY) growth during this period.

Imports grew by 3.5 per cent (YoY), reaching $ 472.8 billion, with merchandise imports registering a growth of 4.5 per cent (YoY), the report notes. The increase was driven by non-petroleum, non-gems, and jewellery imports, which grew by 8.3 per cent (YoY), and the import pattern indicates a robust domestic demand within the economy, the ministry’s report said.

The MER also states that discriminatory trade policies have so far had a limited impact globally, too as global trade of both goods and services has shown resilience. Quoted data from UNCTAD, the report said that while the total global trade (goods and services) has increased by 2.5 per cent QoQ in Q2 CY2025, trade in goods has increased by 2.6 per cent QoQ, and the trade in services has registered a QoQ growth of 2.6 per cent, rebounding after a negative QoQ growth in Q1 2025. For Q3 CY2025, the forecast is a QoQ growth of 2.6 per cent for goods and 4.4 per cent for services.