India’s retail market to touch $1.93 trillion by 2030, FMCG exports in focus

India’s consumer ecosystem is entering a defining decade, shaped by a young, digitally fluent population, expanding middle class and the economic rise of Tier II and III cities. Anand Ramanathan, partner & consumer industry leader, Deloitte South Asia, said India’s deep domestic consumption base sustains growth at home while also creating a “strong springboard for global competitiveness, positioning Indian products to capture new market share overseas.”

India’s retail sector has more than doubled in size over the past decade and is projected to sustain momentum, driven by higher disposable incomes, urbanisation and digital adoption, according to a joint FICCI-Deloitte report. E-commerce, in particular, is seeing rapid expansion, with smaller towns now contributing more than 60% of online transactions. “The next wave of growth will be driven less by distribution expansion and more by the ability of FMCG, retail, and e-commerce players to anticipate and respond to shifting consumer behaviours, regional nuances and the demand for purpose-led innovation,” Ramanathan said. He added that hyper-personalised experiences, omni-channel integration and localised, sustainable manufacturing will be critical levers for growth.

The report notes that India is well placed to scale its FMCG exports by leveraging free trade agreements and evolving tariff realignments. Exports have seen a continuous momentum across key categories, especially prevalent in food and beauty. 

Kumar Venkatasubramanian, chair, FICCI FMCG Committee and CEO & managing director, P&G India Subcontinent, said India has the chance to transform into a global FMCG powerhouse by tapping its domestic consumption strength and export potential. “With the right ecosystem support, Indian FMCG companies can drive innovation, accelerate digital adoption, and build brands that are competitive on the global stage,” he added.

The report projects that the FMCG sector, already contributing significantly to employment and GDP, will benefit from policy interventions and greater focus on localised production. With decisive action, it estimates India can double its retail market size by 2030 while setting benchmarks for resilience, innovation and sustainability. “MSMEs, D2C players and other Indian companies can scale exports by investing in certifications, packaging and compliance. Government support through schemes such as MDA (Market Development Assistance) and TIES (Trade Infrastructure for Export Scheme), as well as export-linked rebate schemes such as RoDTEP (Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products), further strengthens this as a viable volume growth lever,” adds the report.

On the retail side, modern trade, kiranas and digital platforms are expected to co-exist and evolve together. V Subramaniam, Chair, FICCI Retail and Internal Trade Committee and managing director, Reliance Retail Ltd., pointed out that India’s retail story is unique because of its hybrid nature. “India is perhaps the only large market where traditional kiranas and modern formats are growing simultaneously. The task ahead is to ensure that this co-existence continues while building retail formats that address the needs of diverse consumer cohorts across geographies,” he said.

As consumer demand shifts towards premiumisation, health, sustainability and digital-first experiences, industry leaders stress that companies will need to sharpen their agility. The rise of younger consumers and the growing purchasing power of smaller cities is expected to change product development and retail formats.