Economic Survey 2026: 10 key takeaways on India’s growth, fiscal health, and global resilience
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Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman tabled the Economic Survey 2025–26 in Parliament on Thursday, setting the stage for the Union Budget 2026. Prepared under Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran, the 739-page document provides India’s official assessment of economic performance, structural reforms, and an outlook for FY27. The survey underscores strong domestic fundamentals, fiscal consolidation, and resilience amid global uncertainty.
Here are the 10 key takeaways from the Economic Survey 2026:
GDP Growth Outlook: Real GDP is estimated to expand 7.4% in FY26, with growth projected at 6.8–7.2% in FY27, maintaining India’s position as the fastest-growing major economy. Potential growth is pegged around 7%.
Consumption Momentum: Private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) accounts for 61.5% of GDP, supported by easing inflation, stable employment, and rising real incomes, driving broad-based domestic demand.
Investment Cycle Intact: Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) stands at 30% of GDP, with investment growth of 7.6% in H1 FY26, above pre-pandemic averages, aided by infrastructure and manufacturing spending.
Sectoral Strength: Manufacturing grew 8.4% in H1 FY26, while services GVA rose 9.3%, reaffirming their central role. Agriculture and allied sectors grew 3.1%, supported by a favourable monsoon and allied activities.
Inflation Eases: Headline CPI inflation averaged 1.7% from April–December 2025, boosting real purchasing power and keeping inflationary expectations anchored.
Exports Hit Record: Total exports reached $825.3 billion in FY25, with services exports cushioning global trade volatility.
External Buffers Comfortable: Forex reserves stand at $701.4 billion, covering over 11 months of imports and 94% of external debt. Current account deficit remained moderate at 0.8% of GDP in H1 FY26.
Fiscal Consolidation: FY25 fiscal deficit narrowed to 4.8% of GDP, with FY26 targeted at 4.4%. State-level fiscal risks and revenue deficits remain a concern.
Financial Sector Health: Gross NPAs declined to 2.2%, with a stable slippage ratio of 0.7%, reflecting improving banking sector resilience.
Innovation and Infrastructure: India’s Global Innovation Index rank improved to 38th in 2025, while capital expenditure increased fourfold since FY18. High-speed rail, airports, PLI schemes, and the semiconductor mission are driving structural transformation.
The survey also highlights AI, digitalisation, and domestic reforms, noting that while India’s fundamentals are robust, geopolitical tensions and volatile capital flows pose external risks.