IMD predicts above-normal southwest monsoon rainfall

National weather forecaster India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday said above-normal rainfall is most likely over the country during the monsoon season June to September 2024.

The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall is most likely to be above-normal over central and south peninsular India, normal over northwest India and below normal over northeast India, the IMD says in its updated long-range forecast outlook.

The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over most of the rainfed agriculture areas in the country is most likely to be above normal, the state-run forecaster says.

Above normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of the country except many areas of northern part of northwest India, northeast India and eastern part of central India and adjoining areas of east India, where below normal to normal rainfall is most likely.

In June, above-normal monthly maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, except many parts of the southern peninsular India, where normal to below-normal temperatures are most likely. Above-normal monthly minimum temperatures are likely across most parts of the country, except extreme northern parts of northwest India and a few pockets of east and northeast India, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are most likely.

"The strong El Niño conditions observed over the equatorial Pacific in the beginning of this year have weakened rapidly into weak El Niño conditions and are currently transitioning towards ENSO neutral conditions. The latest Climate model forecasts indicate ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to get established during the beginning of the monsoon season and La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the later part of the monsoon season," says the IMD.

At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean, the weather office says. The latest forecasts from many global climate models indicate positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season.

During June, above-normal heatwave days are likely over most areas of northwest India and adjoining areas of central India.

IMD had earlier warned of a heatwave with above-normal temperatures in most parts of the south peninsula, central India, east India and plains of northwest India during the hot weather season (April-June).

Last week, it issued a "severe heatwave" warning in north India and northwest India in the next five days. "Heatwave to severe heatwave conditions most likely to continue over plains of Northwest India and Heatwave conditions over north Madhya Pradesh & Gujarat State during next 5 days. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall very likely over south Peninsular India till 24th May with the possibility of extremely heavy falls over Kerala on 22nd & 23rd May 2024," IMD says in a post on X.