India is on course to become the world’s third-largest economy after the U.S. and China by 2030 on rapid population growth and healthy manufacturing sectors, says a report. As per the updated estimates of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India has overtaken the U.K. to become the world’s fifth largest economy at market exchange rates.
"Looking ahead, India looks set to continue its march up the global rankings," says a note by Shilan Shah, senior economist at Capital Economics. The Indian economy will grow at average real GDP growth of 6% from 2022-2030. China and the U.S., on the other hand, will see average real GDP growth of 2% and 2.7%, respectively, shows Capital Economics data.
Emerging markets with rapid population growth, healthy manufacturing sectors or those that stand to benefit from the greening of the global economy, will also jump up the GDP league table, says the note.
The sting in the tail is that, at an aggregate level, income convergence with developed markets will be slower than it has been in the past couple of decades, says Shah.
India became the world's fifth largest economy in the world in March-end 2022 after it replaced the U.K., which also ruled the Indian sub-continent for around 200 years, shows the Bloomberg data based on the IMF database and historic exchange rates.
The news came close on the heels of PM Modi setting out a vision for the country for the next 25 years before India's 100 years of independence. Labelling them "Panch Pran (5 pledges) of Amrit Kaal", he called on Indians to make the country a 'developed nation' by the time it celebrates 100 years of independence in 2047.
In the coming years, the domestic currency is also expected to reverse the long-run trend of depreciation against the U.S. dollar. Notably, according to ratings agency Moody's Investors Service says the rupee has depreciated around 7% against the U.S. dollar during the year-to-date period. " In all, we think India will overtake Germany and Japan to become the third largest economy in the world within the next decade."
Beyond India, other emerging markets like Bangladesh, Morocco and Vietnam will also jump up the rankings over the next decade. "In fact, our forecasts suggest that EMs will account for 52% of global GDP in 2030, from around 45% in 2020," says Shah.
The emerging markets have been categorised into three groups. First is those with manufacturing sectors or those who can develop these. "Our forecasts out to 2030 suggest that Vietnam will rise up the global table of largest economies by 14 places, to 23rd – the largest individual leap."
The second group comprises countries in sub-Saharan Africa, says the note, adding that these nations will see continued fast growth in the labour force. However, a rapid increase in productivity will still remain an issue. "As a result, while overall GDP will expand rapidly, GDP per capita among the second group is likely to converge with developed economies only slowly."
The third group comprises countries like Chile and Peru, whose commodity export basket could make them beneficiaries of the ‘greening’ of the global economy.
"In particular, a more widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) would boost the terms of trade of producers of certain metals (e.g. copper) such as Chile and Peru, allowing stronger demand and stronger real exchange rates."
Some of the emerging markets like Russia, Nigeria and Angola would also "underperform", primarily due to the western sanctions and the domestic policy shift towards autarky, says the note, adding that they could slip down the global league table over the next decade.