Printing of money won’t get you far: Donald Trump Jr

With Donald Trump once again sworn in as the 47th President of the US, Fortune India revisits an exclusive December 2022 conversation with Donald Trump Jr., presenting some previously unpublished excerpts here in a Q&A format. Conducted at Tribeca Developers’ 10th-anniversary celebration in Pune, Trump Jr. shared candid thoughts on the Federal Reserve’s policies, inflation’s impact on real estate, and what he perceived as political manipulation of recession metrics. His insights, shared three years ago, provide a prescient look at the challenges now facing the administration as his father takes office once again.

What is your sense on how inflation has impacted the real estate market in the US?

I think it depends on where you are in the real estate market. Inflation isn’t necessarily bad if you own real estate. But I think what’s going on with inflation looks like it could get pretty ugly. That’s very general, of course. In ultra-luxury, it’s a different market. Even when it’s down, some people can still buy because they’re doing fine, even if they’re not making billions. So, it’s different. But across the board in the U.S., I think they’ve done a fairly poor job managing the conditions that led to this. They did nothing to control it, because that would reflect on the administration's policies. Eventually, though, you have to pay the piper.

So, do you think the Fed is really meeting its inflation goals?

I think it’s a combination of factors, honestly. Some of it is misguided policy. Not all of it rests with the Fed, but when you have energy independence and then shut that down, turning to wind and solar—that’s wonderful in theory if those technologies were ready to support that capacity. They want 100% electric cars by 2027, but there’s not enough lithium in the world to achieve that. It’s a nice idea for signalling, but it’s not reality. When these things don’t line up with reality, eventually, it catches up to you. And then there’s the printing of money. The spending going on in the US right now is mind-boggling. I don’t see the productivity to support it. But you print a couple of trillion dollars, and you can get away with it for a bit. Eventually, though, that ends, and when it does, I think it’s going to be very painful for a lot of people.

So, do you see that playing out?

I think it’s a bit different from the 2006-2007 crisis. The banks have done a better job of protecting themselves. But the reality is there are a lot of people living in million-dollar homes they could only afford at 2% interest rates. When their mortgages reset to 6% or higher, combined with doubled fuel prices, they’re suddenly spending thousands more each year just to commute and feed their families. You can’t just make those costs go away; there’s not enough excess wealth to absorb that. The policies put out by the administration look good on the surface, and the media gives them glowing reviews. They talk about taxing billionaires at 100%, but that wouldn’t sustain even two weeks of U.S. spending. And then, on top of that, they’re sending billions to Ukraine and other places like it’s endless. While these choices might have short-term political benefits, there’s a long-term disaster building up. I don’t think this can go on much longer.

Everyone’s talking about the US going into a recession…

Let’s be clear—we’re in a recession right now. But because it’s the Democrats, and because Trump was able to keep things running, now with Biden struggling, they’re changing the definition of a recession to fit the narrative. I think we all see this happening. This isn’t made up. They’ll say, “It’s not really a recession” or “We never officially defined it that way,” even though everyone’s been using that metric. If it were Trump, every headline would be declaring a recession, but now with Democrats in charge, it’s “Well, maybe not really.” And it’s a joke, honestly—a joke that’s pushing the entire world. The U.S. is going to drag everyone else down with it because, when the U.S. stops buying raw materials and producing, no one can sustain that gap. This impacts countries like India as well, along with everyone else, because the U.S. consumes so much and produces so little these days. But when that consumption stops — and it will because money isn’t indefinite — that’s going to create a problem elsewhere.

Could you give a sense of the challenges you’ve faced back home, especially the legal ones?

It’s a lot like the “Russia, Russia, Russia” narrative—it went on for five years, and everyone was told it was true. The intelligence agencies backed it, and yet, in the end, it turned out to be nonsense. They’ll continue to push these things because they can, especially in places like New York, where it’s all controlled by Democrats. The company didn’t benefit in any meaningful way, yet we had to defend against this over seven years with millions of documents exchanged. It’s just an optical win for them. If you actually look at the facts — which no one seems to do because headlines are easier—it’s clear it’s a joke. A multi-billion-dollar company allegedly did all this to save $1,200 a year? It’s ridiculous.

Hasn’t it created challenges in your business activities?

Yes, that’s the intention — to politically harm the business and our ability to operate effectively. It’s astonishing that this can even happen in a place like New York, a city where Trump literally helped shape the skyline. The same people going after him now were the ones seeking donations and celebrating him with awards in the past. But now that he’s a Republican, everything’s different. It’s nonsense, and anyone looking objectively at the last six years can see what’s been happening. America has its own issues to deal with right now, that’s for sure.