Can Dhurandhar’s box office boom boost the PVR-INOX outlook? Here’s what PL Capital says

The sleeper success of Ranveer Singh’s high-octane spy thriller 'Dhurandhar' has emerged as an unexpected boost for multiplex chain operator PVR-INOX , strengthening the outlook for the December quarter. It also raises the possibility of upgrades to FY26 earnings estimates, PL Capital said in its latest report.

With about 15 days still left in the quarter, industry-wide net box office collections (NBOC) have already touched ₹2,570 crore in Q3 FY26E, the brokerage said.

Directed by Aditya Dhar, Dhurandhar has been one of the biggest cinematic success stories of the year, grossing over ₹400 crore in India within just 12 days and becoming one of the fastest Hindi films to reach that milestone.

PL Capital said the film’s strong run has become a key driver for the quarter, while the release of Avatar: Fire & Ash on December 19 is expected to add further momentum. Together, these factors could push industry-wide box office collections past the ₹3,000-crore mark in the quarter.

Post-Covid, industry-wide collections have crossed ₹3,000 crore only three times, and in most such instances, PVR-INOX has delivered healthy pre-Ind AS EBITDA margins. “As can be seen, in every quarter when the figure of ₹3,000 crore was breached, PVR-INOX’s pre-Ind AS EBITDA margin performance was quite healthy,” the brokerage said.

While Q3 FY25 was an exception due to collections being dominated by a regional title with lower contribution to PVR-INOX, PL Capital believes Q3 FY26E is likely to be different, the report said.

The brokerage pointed out that Kantara – A Legend Chapter-1, the highest-grossing film of the quarter so far, has a relatively higher share of Hindi-language collections at around 36%, which supports PVR-INOX’s market share. In addition, PVR-INOX typically commands a 55–70% share of box office collections in the Hollywood segment, offering further upside from Avatar: Fire & Ash. The previous instalment in the franchise had generated net collections of about ₹390 crore.

On a conservative assumption of industry-wide box office collections reaching ₹3,000 crore in Q3 FY26E and PVR-INOX retaining a 30% market share, PL Capital estimates the company’s net box office collections at around ₹900 crore. Since box office revenues typically account for about half of PVR-INOX’s total revenue, this implies quarterly topline of roughly ₹1,800 crore.

“If we assume industry-wide box office collections settle at ₹3,000 crore and PVR-INOX’s market share is at 30%, we arrive at an NBOC figure of ₹900 crore for Q3 FY26E. NBOC typically forms 50% of PVR-INOX’s topline, implying revenue of about ₹1,800 crore in Q3 FY26E,” the report highlighted.

Based on these assumptions, PL Capital expects PVR-INOX’s Q3 FY26E performance to broadly mirror that of Q2 FY26, with a positive bias. The brokerage estimates pre-Ind AS EBITDA of around ₹297 crore for the quarter, assuming margins of 16.5%, similar to the previous quarter.

PL Capital said the unexpected success of Dhurandhar could trigger upgrades to FY26 earnings estimates. The film’s lifetime collections are tracking towards ₹400–500 crore, a performance few had anticipated, and one that has materially strengthened the quarter’s box office outlook. Excluding Dhurandhar, the brokerage noted, would significantly weaken the overall industry numbers for the quarter.

For FY26E, PL Capital estimates pre-Ind AS EBITDA of about ₹817 crore. With stronger contributions now expected in Q3 FY26E, the implied EBITDA for Q4 FY26E appears conservative, suggesting room for upward revisions to full-year earnings.

Despite the improving outlook, PL Capital has retained its ‘HOLD’ rating on PVR-INOX, with a target price of ₹1,211, valuing the stock at 10.5 times FY27E EBITDA.

Currently, PVR-INOX shares were trading at ₹1,051.70, down 1.32%, with a market capitalisation of ₹10,328 crore. The counter hit a 52-week high on ₹1,489.25 on December 18, 2024, and a 52-week low of ₹825.65 on April 7, 2025.

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