From cheap data to big-ticket IPO: Reliance Jio may raise record ₹30,000 cr from just 2.5% stake sale

Mukesh Ambani, chairman of Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL), has finally unveiled a timeline for the long-awaited listing of Reliance Jio (RJio), with the initial public offering (IPO) planned for the first half of 2026, subject to necessary approvals. Brokerage estimates suggest the telecom-to-digital services giant’s IPO could become the largest public issue in India, raising about ₹30,000 crore ($3.6 billion) at minimum dilution.

Analysts peg Jio’s market value in the $121–154 billion range, factoring in both telecom and digital businesses. Even with a modest 2.5% stake dilution, Jio's IPO could raise around ₹30,000 crore, which would potentially make it India's largest IPO, surpassing the current record held by Hyundai Motor India’s ₹27,870 crore offering.

Domestic brokerage Motilal Oswal estimates Jio’s enterprise value at around ₹13.3 lakh crore ($151 billion), which translates into an equity value of ₹11.9 lakh crore ($135 billion), or ₹585 per share attributable to RIL. With Sebi proposing to lower the minimum stake dilution for large IPOs to 2.5%, the brokerage pegs a potential offering size of ₹30,000 crore, which would still set a record for the Indian markets.

“We currently value JPL at an enterprise value of ₹13.3 lakh crore ($151 billion), based on 13.5x Sep’27 EV/EBITDA, which implies an overall equity value of ₹11.9 lakh crore ($135 billion) for JPL (₹585/share attributable to RIL). Based on our valuation and Sebi’s recent proposal for reducing the stake dilution limit to 2.5%, JPL’s IPO could be the largest in India with a size of ₹30,000 crore,” Motilal Oswal said in a report.

“We believe the value creation through the JPL IPO could offset the negative impact of a theoretical holding company discount for RIL’s stake in JPL,” it added.

Motilal Oswal has retained a ‘Buy’ on RIL with an unchanged price target of ₹1,700 per share. “We expect RJio to remain the biggest growth driver with 19% EBITDA CAGR over FY25–28, driven by one more tariff hike, market share gains in wireless, and continued ramp-up of the Homes and Enterprise offerings.”

JM Financial believes the IPO timeline increases the likelihood of a 15% tariff hike in the telecom sector by Nov–Dec 2025, as RIL looks to strengthen Jio’s earnings base before going public. Such a move would be positive for both RIL and Bharti Airtel, boosting average revenue per user (ARPUs) across the sector.

The telecom company recently crossed the milestone of 500 million subscribers, including 220 million 5G users, while its broadband base touched 20.7 million customers. Its AirFiber service is adding over 1 million homes each month, powered by proprietary UBR technology. Jio has also identified enterprises and MSMEs as its next growth engines, the brokerage highlighted in its report.

JM Financial has also assigned a ‘Buy’ call on the stock with a price target of ₹1,700, saying that RIL has the capabilities to drive robust 15–20% earnings per share (EPS) CAGR over the next 3–5 years. “We reiterate BUY (unchanged TP of ₹1,700) as we believe RIL has industry-leading capabilities across businesses to drive robust 15–20% EPS CAGR over the next 3–5 years, particularly driven by both consumer businesses, with Jio’s ARPU expected to rise at 13% CAGR over FY25–28, given the industry structure, future investment needs, and the need to avoid a duopoly market.”

Another domestic brokerage, Emkay, highlighted that the IPO will likely showcase Jio not just as a telecom giant but also as an AI and digital services leader. RIL has set up a new subsidiary, Reliance Intelligence, to drive its AI strategy. This includes gigawatt-scale AI-ready data centers in Jamnagar, powered by green energy.

Emkay has also maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on RIL with a target price of ₹1,600, noting that the Jio IPO could serve as both a value-unlocking event and a strategic inflection point.

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