RBI MPC April 2025 preview: Is a rate cut on the horizon? Here's all you need to know

As the Reserve Bank of India's  (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) gears up for its next meeting which will conclude on April 9, expectations are building across sectors for a possible shift in interest rates. With inflation showing signs of easing and India’s economic outlook staying positive despite global uncertainties, stakeholders are weighing the likelihood and impact of a rate cut. Industry leaders from fintech, real estate, and investment sectors are watching closely.

Rohit Garg CEO and Co-Founder of Olyv sees a rate cut as a boost for digital lending and financial inclusion, He said, "As the MPC meeting draws near, the fintech industry is keenly watching for signs of a possible rate cut—especially with inflation easing and global economic uncertainties in play. A rate cut could catalyze borrowing, accelerate digital lending, and boost financial inclusion—all of which are key pillars of fintech growth. However, the RBI faces a delicate balance between supporting growth and maintaining financial stability amid global market volatility. For fintechs, lower rates could improve credit accessibility for both consumers and small businesses. That said, we remain cautious of external shocks. The right policy move at this juncture can further digitize India’s financial ecosystem and build long-term resilience."

While Ramani Sastri, Chairman & MD of Sterling Developers believes it would energize housing demand and reinforce real estate’s role in driving growth. He said, "The repo rate plays a crucial role in determining home loan interest rates and hence, it is an extremely sensitive factor in the housing market, particularly among first-time homebuyers to enter the market."

"The RBI should consider reducing rates in the upcoming monetary policy, which will boost investor confidence, encourage housing demand with affordability factor, and act as a catalyst for the overall development of the real estate sector. As India's economy continues to grow, there is no hesitation among homebuyers to invest in residential real estate for long-term returns. We definitely hope to see further lower interest rates which will provide impetus to not just real estate and housing demand but across industries. The rate cut would also strengthen market confidence, infuse much-needed liquidity and greater investment activity into the real estate sector. We believe that the sustained demand will further solidify the sector’s upward trajectory well into 2025, cementing the Indian real estate market as a key driver of economic growth. Overall, the anticipated softening of home loan interest rates is expected to further fuel this momentum, making homeownership more attractive for both end-users and investors," added Sastri.

Meanwhile, Freo’s Kunal Varma anticipates a dovish stance but no immediate cuts, citing persistent global risks. “As we begin the new fiscal year, the subsequent MPC meeting will be keenly observed for signs on the direction of interest rates. Though inflation seems to be gradually easing, global uncertainties and food price volatility remain on the radar. We do not expect a rate cut in the near term; however, it would not be surprising if the pause extended in a more dovish manner. For borrowers, interest rates can still remain stable in the near term, but the latter half of the year might bring some relief if inflation keeps softening. The attention will still remain focused on growth support while keeping a lid on inflation.”

Laukik Bagwe, Fund Manager and Head – Fixed Income, ITI Mutual Fund highlights that a front-loaded easing strategy could sustain economic momentum. Together, these views reflect cautious optimism that monetary policy could pivot to support growth while keeping inflation risks in check. He said, “The RBI's proactive approach to monetary policy, combined with fiscal support measures such as tax cuts and increased capital expenditure, is expected to boost economic growth without exacerbating inflation. A front-loaded rate-cutting strategy, supplemented by liquidity and macro-prudential easing, should help narrow the negative output gap and sustain growth momentum. The upcoming monetary policy announcement is anticipated to continue this easing trend, supporting India's economic recovery and stability.”