With gold above ₹1,14,000, should you chase the rally or wait for a dip?

Amid global macro uncertainties and trade wars, spot gold prices hit an all-time high of about $3,791.11 per ounce on September 23. The value is nearly twice of what it was two years ago and exceeds the 2024 target of $3,700. Moreover, on September 23, 2025, analysts noted three-year highs in daily inflows into gold ETFs, reinforcing the metal's strength.

On the MCX, the gold price hovered around ₹1,14,198 on September 26, 2025, surpassing all previous records this month. The safe-haven asset is on the verge of scaling a new high.

Even as further predictions are challenging as of now, we believe gold is eventually going to scale the $4,800-peak and beyond. Of course, caution is warranted going ahead, as any explosive moves like the one we are in may be subject to sudden corrections.

"As of now, gold remains in momentum, and any further breaches below $3,444 will signal a correction and should serve as a stop for trading positions," says Sandip Raichura, CEO–retail broking & distribution and director at PL Capital.

Additionally, Aksha Kamboj, vice president, India Bullion & Jewellers Association (IBJA), and executive chairperson, Aspect Global Ventures, says, "Gold prices in India recently saw a mild correction after a strong rally, with the domestic market responding to global cues combined with tempered domestic buying."

Kamboj said that this recent dip occurred amid some relaxation in safe-haven buying, as international spot prices have corrected due to investor reassessment of the U.S. rate paradigm.

"However, demand in India stemming from the festive and wedding seasons continues to provide an underlying sentiment of demand at high premiums consistent with last week," adds Kamboj.

Additional reports call out increased retail demand ahead of Navratri and Diwali, which continues to bolster sentiment for price development. The near-term outlook should create value volatility driven by uncertainty in the rupee and global inflation dynamics.

However, Raichura says long-term positions, however, may use any dips as a buying opportunity, as we believe gold has begun a huge move that may last several months. "The longer term move is predicated on certain assumptions about how the international data will unravel over the next few months–higher inflation, a complete and huge difference between EU moves (pauses) on rates versus the Fed (cuts) causing USD weakness and of course, a very definitive stance by China on its gold reserves accumulation which still remains way below global averages (8,5% versus global average of about 20%)," said Raichura.

Some reports indicate that gold still hasn’t seen strong institutional buying, nor is the long-short derivative data biased adversely, thus potentially presenting more tailwinds for the metal.

"We continue to recommend a minimum 5-10% allocation even at current levels to improve risk-adjusted returns over complete economic cycles," adds Raichura.