India’s gem and jewellery exports to the US, its single largest market, fell sharply in the first nine months of FY26, underlining how tariff uncertainty and weakening discretionary demand are reshaping global trade flows for the sector.

Shipments to the US dropped 44.42% year-on-year between April and December 2025 to $3.86 billion, compared with $6.95 billion in the same period last year, according to data released by the Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC).

The slowdown deepened in December alone, when exports to the US declined 50.44% year-on-year, pointing to sustained pressure rather than a one-off dip.

“The United States remains India’s largest export destination, accounting for nearly 30% of our gem and jewellery exports. The sharp decline in shipments is a matter of serious concern,” said Kirit Bhansali, chairman of GJEPC. “Prolonged uncertainty around tariffs could adversely impact the long-term viability of the US market for Indian jewellery exporters.”

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Despite the steep fall in its biggest market, India’s overall gem and jewellery exports stayed broadly flat, signalling a shift underway in how the industry is navigating global volatility. Provisional exports for April–December 2025 stood at $20.75 billion, down just 0.41% year-on-year, even as they rose 3.69% in rupee terms, aided by currency movement and steady trade flows.

The growth drivers

The near-stable performance was driven by strong growth in jewellery exports, especially gold, silver and platinum, which helped offset weakness in diamonds and lab-grown diamonds. The data suggests that exporters are leaning on product diversification, value addition and new markets to cushion the impact of slowing demand in developed economies.

A key support has come from countries where India has trade agreements. Exports to the UAE rose 28.08% year-on-year to $6.89 billion, while shipments to Hong Kong jumped 28.19% to $4.25 billion. Exports to Australia also climbed 39.83% to $277.76 million.

“Free Trade Agreements with the UAE and Australia have come at a crucial time for the industry,” Bhansali said. “Recent FTAs with the UK, Oman, New Zealand and others will further enhance competitiveness by reducing duties and easing trade barriers.”

The shift away from dependence on a few large markets is becoming structural rather than tactical. Exporters are expanding their footprint across West Asia, Asia-Pacific, Australia and parts of Latin America, building what the council describes as a more balanced export base.

Within product segments, the divergence is stark. Cut and polished diamond exports declined 7.85% year-on-year to $8.99 billion, largely due to weaker US demand and tariff-related pressures. Polished lab-grown diamond exports fell 10.28% to $840.14 million.

In contrast, total gold jewellery exports, including plain and studded pieces, rose 7.28% to $8.67 billion. Silver jewellery exports surged 44.36% to $1.11 billion, while platinum jewellery exports jumped 49.16% to $195.65 million, aided by growing acceptance in niche markets.

Part of the growth in gold jewellery was driven by price rather than volume. Gold bar prices rose 52% between April and December 2025 compared with the same period last year.

“Plain gold jewellery exports recorded a value growth of 7.72% to $3.82 billion. This increase was largely value-led,” Bhansali said. “Higher prices lifted export realisations even though volumes moderated.”

For an industry long reliant on the US, the data points to a turning point, one where resilience is being built through diversification, trade pacts and a changing product mix, rather than a rebound in any single market.