Economic Survey 2026: 10 key takeaways on India’s growth, fiscal health, and global resilience

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Summary

Economic Survey 2026 highlights India’s strong domestic growth, fiscal consolidation, record exports, and infrastructure expansion, even as global uncertainties and geopolitical risks loom

V Anantha Nageswaran, Chief Economic Advisor.
V Anantha Nageswaran, Chief Economic Advisor. | Credits: Narendra Bisht

Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman tabled the Economic Survey 2025–26 in Parliament on Thursday, setting the stage for the Union Budget 2026. Prepared under Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran, the 739-page document provides India’s official assessment of economic performance, structural reforms, and an outlook for FY27. The survey underscores strong domestic fundamentals, fiscal consolidation, and resilience amid global uncertainty.

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Here are the 10 key takeaways from the Economic Survey 2026:

  • GDP Growth Outlook: Real GDP is estimated to expand 7.4% in FY26, with growth projected at 6.8–7.2% in FY27, maintaining India’s position as the fastest-growing major economy. Potential growth is pegged around 7%.

  • Consumption Momentum: Private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) accounts for 61.5% of GDP, supported by easing inflation, stable employment, and rising real incomes, driving broad-based domestic demand.

  • Investment Cycle Intact: Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) stands at 30% of GDP, with investment growth of 7.6% in H1 FY26, above pre-pandemic averages, aided by infrastructure and manufacturing spending.

  • Sectoral Strength: Manufacturing grew 8.4% in H1 FY26, while services GVA rose 9.3%, reaffirming their central role. Agriculture and allied sectors grew 3.1%, supported by a favourable monsoon and allied activities.

  • Inflation Eases: Headline CPI inflation averaged 1.7% from April–December 2025, boosting real purchasing power and keeping inflationary expectations anchored.

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  • Exports Hit Record: Total exports reached $825.3 billion in FY25, with services exports cushioning global trade volatility.

  • External Buffers Comfortable: Forex reserves stand at $701.4 billion, covering over 11 months of imports and 94% of external debt. Current account deficit remained moderate at 0.8% of GDP in H1 FY26.

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  • Fiscal Consolidation: FY25 fiscal deficit narrowed to 4.8% of GDP, with FY26 targeted at 4.4%. State-level fiscal risks and revenue deficits remain a concern.

  • Financial Sector Health: Gross NPAs declined to 2.2%, with a stable slippage ratio of 0.7%, reflecting improving banking sector resilience.

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  • Innovation and Infrastructure: India’s Global Innovation Index rank improved to 38th in 2025, while capital expenditure increased fourfold since FY18. High-speed rail, airports, PLI schemes, and the semiconductor mission are driving structural transformation.

  • The survey also highlights AI, digitalisation, and domestic reforms, noting that while India’s fundamentals are robust, geopolitical tensions and volatile capital flows pose external risks. 

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