Brent tops $100, GIFT Nifty signals weak start as oil surge, earnings keep markets on edge

Brent crude rose above the $100-a-barrel mark on Thursday for the first time since May, adding to concerns over inflation and global growth as tensions in West Asia continued to fuel fears of supply disruptions. The jump in oil prices, along with a weaker rupee and overnight losses on Wall Street, is expected to weigh on Indian equities, with GIFT Nifty indicating a gap-down opening on Friday.

Brent was trading above $100 per barrel, while GIFT Nifty slipped nearly 0.9% in early trade. Oil prices have rallied after attacks on Saudi oil tankers by Iran-backed Houthi rebels heightened concerns over crude supplies through key shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.

Markets decline for fourth straight session

Indian benchmark indices ended lower on Thursday, extending losses for the fourth consecutive session. The Nifty 50 fell 0.53% to close at 23,869.60, while the BSE Sensex declined 0.47% to settle at 76,391.39 as investors remained cautious amid rising geopolitical tensions and higher crude prices.

India VIX, often referred to as the market's fear gauge, has risen nearly 7% over the past three sessions, ending Thursday at 13.48 after touching an intraday high of 13.74.

Higher crude prices remain a key concern for India, which imports more than 80% of its crude oil requirement. A sustained rise in oil prices could increase the country's import bill, put pressure on the rupee, add to inflationary pressures.

Earnings drive stock-specific action

While broader sentiment remained weak, the ongoing June-quarter earnings season continued to drive sharp stock-specific moves.

The Nifty Auto index was the only sectoral gainer, rising 0.70%, supported by gains in Bajaj Auto and Mahindra & Mahindra, which advanced 2.55% and 1.72%, respectively.

Among laggards, Cipla declined over 3% after reporting a 39.19% fall in June-quarter net profit, while Nestlé India slipped nearly 3.5%. State-run Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) fell 2.67% after reporting a standalone net loss of more than ₹11,500 crore for the quarter. Adani Enterprises was the biggest loser on the Nifty, dropping 4.25%.

₹7.6 lakh crore wiped off market value

The recent selloff has also weighed on investor wealth.

According to BSE data, the combined market capitalisation of listed companies has declined by about ₹7.6 lakh crore over the past three trading sessions. On a week-to-date basis, investors have lost roughly ₹5.6 lakh crore.

Institutional flows remained mixed during the week. Between July 20 and July 23, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers of ₹3,289.28 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought shares worth ₹3,183.99 crore, largely offsetting the foreign outflows. Thursday alone saw FIIs sell nearly ₹3,000 crore in the cash market.

U.S. markets ended lower overnight as investors weighed higher oil prices alongside quarterly earnings from major technology companies. The Nasdaq led losses, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average also ended in negative territory as investors assessed the impact of higher energy prices and corporate earnings on the economic outlook. Apart from the attacks on oil tankers, markets are also monitoring developments in West Asia for any disruption to global crude supplies.